France: Insee forecasts a sharp drop in unemployment rate, to 7.6% in the third quarter

Posted on 10/06/2021 21:09 Updated on 10/07/2021 09:57

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Of indicators green for France. INSEE forecasts a sharp drop in the unemployment rate in the third quarter, to 7.6% of the working population against 8% in the second quarter, linked to the strong rebound in employment, according to its last economic report published Wednesday October 6.

” The strong rebound in employment in the middle of the year would translate into a drop in unemployment, which would drop from 8% on average in the second quarter to 7.6% ” in the third trimester, or “almost one point less than two years earlier “, explains the National Institute of Statistics and economic studies.

The 7.6% rate should remain in the fourth quarter, forecasts INSEE. In his note for the month of July , the institute anticipated a virtual stability of the unemployment rate, at 8.2% at the end of 2021, after 8.1% at the beginning of the year.

INSEE emphasizes that “the wave shock “ linked to the Covid-19 health crisis was “very depreciated with regard to the labor market” , salaried employment having exceeded its pre-crisis level as of the second quarter of 2021.

“The pace of creations would slow down somewhat by the end of the year but, in total, around 500 000 net creations of salaried jobs would follow the approximately 300,000 net destruction recorded in 2020 “, underlines INSEE.

At the same time, economic activity “would return overall – but without exceeding it unlike employment – its pre-crisis level by the end of the year” , continues INSEE, which maintains its growth forecast for 2021 unchanged at 6.25%.