Lula and Bolsonaro grow in the presidential race and reduce space for the “third way”, shows Ipespe research

THEY ARE PAULO – A little over a year after the elections, former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and president Jair Bolsonaro (no party) grew in the race to the Palácio do Planalto, according to the latest round of the Ipespe poll, released this week. Thursday (30).

The survey, carried out between the 22nd and 24th of September, shows that Lula reached 30% of the intentions of voting in the spontaneous scenario (when the voter appoints his candidate without the names being presented by the interviewer) – positive variation of 2 percentage points in relation to August. Bolsonaro, on the other hand, maintained the second position, going from 22% to 23%.

With the move, the two open up a 21-point advantage over other names cited by voters – which, combined with other information presented by the survey, may indicate a narrower space for a “third way” candidacy.

Ciro Gomes (PDT), former governor of Ceará, received 2% of spontaneous mentions. Next, the former federal judge Sergio Moro (no party), the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), the businessman João Amoêdo (Novo) and the former minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta (DEM) – each with 1% of voting intentions.

Usually, when closer to the election, the spontaneous scenario points to greater crystallization of support for candidates. But, given the distance of the first round and the lack of knowledge regarding who will actually be the candidate, the data should be viewed with caution.

A The Ipespe survey, commissioned by XP, included 1,000 telephone interviews carried out by operators with voters across the country in a sample proportional to the national population. The confidence interval is 95.5%, which means that, if the questionnaire were applied more than once in the same period and under the same conditions, this would be the probability of the result being repeated within the maximum margin of error, established by 3.2 percentage points up or down.

Two simulated first-round simulations were performed (when possible names of candidates). In the first of them, Lula appears with 43% of voting intentions, while Bolsonaro has 28%. Ciro Gomes appears with 11%, followed by Doria, with 5%, and Mandetta, with 4%. The president of the Federal Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), has 2% of voting intentions. Whites, null and undecided make up 7% of respondents.

Lula positively oscillated 3 pp, while Bolsonaro rose 4 pp. Ciro Gomes went from 10% to 11%, while the other names that scored gathered 11% of voting intentions – 6 points less than in the previous month. The scenario, however, is not exactly the same as in previous surveys, which makes comparisons difficult.

Moro, who appeared with 9% of the intentions of vote, was no longer considered in this simulation and may have indirectly contributed to Bolsonaro’s growth. This is because the agent did not show a similar pattern in other parts of the survey.

In an alternative scenario, Doria is replaced by Eduardo Leite, governor of Rio Grande do Sul, and the candidacies of Sergio Moro, of senators Alessandro Vieira (Cidadania-SE) and Simone Tebet (MDB-MS) are added ) and TV presenter José Luiz Datena (PSL).

In this case, Lula leads with 42% of voting intentions – 17 points to more than Bolsonaro. In the second platoon, Ciro Gomes appears with 9%, followed by Moro, with 7%. Mandetta has 3%, the same percentage as Datena and Eduardo Leite. Simone Tebet has the support of 1% of respondents, as well as Rodrigo Pacheco. Blanks, nulls and undecided add up to 6%.

Second shift

Eight were made run-off simulations. Former President Lula appears in five of them, overcoming his opponents with an advantage greater than the limit of the margin of error. Against Bolsonaro, the difference is 19 points. The two spent 8 months technically tied, but as of June Lula took the lead in the dispute.

Against Moro, Lula’s advantage grew. The PT member now appears with 53% of voting intentions, against 34% of the former judge. Four months ago, the difference was 3 pp, which was a technical tie. Moro came to lead the dispute with an advantage greater than the margin of error in three surveys carried out last year.

Lula would also defeat Ciro Gomes (49% to 30%), Eduardo Leite (49% to 21 %) and João Doria (50% to 24%). In all cases, the advantage exceeds 15 percentage points.

In addition to the scenario against Lula, Bolsonaro’s name is tested against three potential opponents. The president appears numerically behind in all simulations – including against Doria (35% to 39%) and Leite (33% to 36%), in which two months ago he had a slightly higher score, although in a situation of technical tie.

Bolsonaro would be defeated by Ciro Gomes in the second round. The September edition of the survey shows the candidate with 45% of voting intentions – 11 pp more than the current president. Three months ago, the difference was 4 points, which constituted a technical tie.

Consolidation and rejection

The Ipespe survey also shows that, despite leading the presidential race, Lula and Bolsonaro maintain high levels of rejection. In the case of the PT leader, 45% of respondents say they would not vote for him at all. The current president, on the other hand, has the antipathy of 60%.

The survey, on the other hand, reveals that 39% say they would definitely vote for Lula, and 23% in Bolsonaro. This is another indication of difficulties for an alternative name to the polarization carried out by the two candidates. Also according to the poll, 15% say they could vote for Lula and 10% for Bolsonaro.

Government review

President Jair Bolsonaro also experienced an increase again in the rejection rates of his government. According to the survey, 55% of voters considered the current administration to be “bad” or “very bad” – a negative trend that has lasted 12 months.

The movement represents a negative oscillation of 1 percentage point in the rejection of the government in relation to the August numbers. The survey shows that the group of those who assess the government as “great” or “good” remained at 23% – the lowest level since Bolsonaro took office in January 2019. Another 18% see the government as “regular”.

The negative balance of 32 percentage points between rejection and approval is also the largest of the current administration. It exceeds the average difference recorded in the last 39 surveys by 24.3 pp.

Although of the worsening of the electorate’s perception of the federal government, the Ipespe poll showed some improvement of Bolsonaro among society groups that concentrate the largest slice of supporters – either as a recovery of support or a reduction in negative evaluation. These are the cases of voters with a monthly family income above 5 minimum wages and evangelicals.

In the first group, which corresponds to 18% of the sample According to the survey, the percentage of voters who classify the current administration as “excellent” or “good” jumped from 21% to 33%. In the second, responsible for 23% of the sample, negative ratings fell from 39% to 36%.

It is worth mentioning, however, that it is It is natural that the percentages show greater fluctuation in the segmented data, considering the smaller number of interviews in the clippings – which makes the margin of error greater within the groups, especially in those with less participation in the general population.

In the binary government assessment scenario, disapproval of the current administration reached the mark of 64% – an accumulated increase of 19 percentage points in relation to the December last year. The approval was 30%, 1 percentage point more than in August. Another 6% did not answer the question.

Economy, news and pandemic

The worsening in The Bolsonaro administration’s assessment coincides with two other variables that have already correlated with the president’s popularity: the perception that the economy is on the wrong track and the assessment that the news about the current administration is mostly negative.

The survey shows that 64% of voters believe the economy is on the wrong track – 1 percentage point below the April record, the highest level in the historical series. Another 27% agree with the current conduct of economic policy, while 9% did not respond to the question.

For 61% of respondents, the news that came out recently about the federal government and President Jair Bolsonaro on television, in newspapers, on the radio and on the internet were mostly negative. Only 9% saw a predominance of stories favorable to the current administration.

The worsening of the president’s image in public opinion may also be corroborated by the high perception of the risk of an escalation of the water crisis. According to the survey, 69% believe in the possibility of Brazil having to face energy rationing in the coming months. Only 25% think otherwise.

In contrast, there was an improvement in voters’ perception of the new coronavirus pandemic. The group of respondents who say they are very afraid of the Covid-19 outbreak fell from 39% in August to 28% this month – the lowest level since March 2020.

The 11 percentage points difference was divided between those who say they are not afraid of the health crisis, which jumped from 25% to 30%, and those who say they are little afraid, who went from 36% to 41 %.

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