Omikron Scenarios: This is how a pandemic could become a pandemic in 2022

Is the vaccine campaign going to work, will we downgrade the omicron to the flu, or is everything progressing in the current round? – we currently have these three prospects for the evolution of the coronavirus epidemic in 2022. For the time being, in the third year of the epidemic, caution and vaccination is the most we can do, but the fact is that it never seemed so realistic that the pandemic could end.

2022 starts with the same question as it started in 2021:

when will the coronavirus epidemic end, if at all?

Last year, the alpha variant, formerly known as the British variant, began to become more widespread, provoking a mutation that caused more infectivity and more serious illness even before the mass launch of the vaccination campaign. out more closures around the world. The following South African beta and Brazilian gamma

variant did not replace alpha, the delta

first identified in India eventually took the place of the dominant viral mutation, and

In the colder months, the omicron variant, for which many are already expecting the most diverse are switched on. So we’ve compiled what omicron scenarios experts think we can expect in 2022.

People wearing protective masks will talk in the center of Rome on December 27, 2021. Due to the spread of the omicron version of the coronavirus, the use of a protective mask has been made compulsory again

© AFP

What is certain

Contrary to previous mutations, the spread of the omicron is not limited to pessimistic expectations. In fact, we are talking about the most infectious version of the coronavirus to date, and the epidemic figures show that those who have been vaccinated twice or even three times have caught omicron. This in itself is not surprising, as vaccines do not rule out infection, but they alleviate symptoms. tactics if the host is killed. It is therefore a positive development that all indications regarding omicron indicate that it is the least dangerous of the mutations known so far in terms of the severity of the disease attacks the lungs of humans less and the (repeated, third) vaccination in a large proportion of cases can prevent hospitalization

This was confirmed by a WHO representative at a press conference on Tuesday. Abdi Mahamud spoke of the growing evidence that the omicron version of the coronavirus affects the upper respiratory tract, resulting in milder symptoms than previous variants. Thus, the number of infections alone shows a less direct correlation with the number of people in need of hospital care. For example, in the highly vaccinated Britain and Portugal, the number of new infections per million people per day is 8 to 10 times higher than in Hungary, accounting for roughly one-tenth of the number of deaths registered in Hungary every 24 hours

. )

A schoolboy is vaccinated against coronavirus girl in Chennai. On January 3, 2022, the Government of India launched the COVID-19 vaccination campaign against the coronavirus in schools for teenagers between the ages of 15 and 18. 33,750 new cases of COVID-19 have been registered in India, the highest number since September

© AFP

The vaccination scenario

Thus, one of the coronavirus scenarios is that if vaccines continue to be effective (and are essentially so), vaccination can get out of the tunnel. Science is doing its job: as long as it took a year to make the first effective Covid vaccines, manufacturers can develop a vaccine tailored to an omicron or other, possibly newer, in just a few months, most easily the mRNA revolutionized by Katalin Karikó technology. Hungary, for example has ordered 9.5 million doses of the new mutation Pfizer vaccines and, given that there are three of the vaccines now available to provide outstanding protection, the situation seems encouraging

.

The vaccination solution is hampered by two things:

where available, not enough, and where it is really needed

There are solutions to the first problem, but the final trump card, the compulsory vaccination, is hard to order. However, it seems logical that vaccine campaigns should not be done all the way, or at all, as long as there are wider layers of unvaccinated or already weakened protection, new waves of infection will reach them, hospitals will be overwhelmed and everything will start all over again

.

Only the former “virus laboratory” of Viktor Orbán, Austria, dared to circumvent the compulsory vaccination so far: although no one is physically obliged to vaccinate in the neighboring country, the vaccination can cost almost 600 euros (220 thousand forints) per quarter from February, and

After the fall of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz, the loss of face will not endanger the Austrian government, but elsewhere it will become a burning issue when leaders dare to risk vaccination

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to have at least 40% n Vaccination has not been achieved, mainly due to the accumulation of vaccines in African countries and the West, and immunization rates in all 30 countries around the world are in single digits. However, while the lack of vaccines will be the biggest obstacle by the end of 2021. By the end of the year, the underdeveloped vaccination infrastructure will be the biggest obstacle

Covax program and direct donation more and more vaccines (although of course not enough in numbers) are reaching poorer countries around the world, but in many places there are no suitable conditions for vaccines to be stored in the long term or for everyone to reach them. Countries with lower vaccination rates are thus still exposed to the epidemic and are at risk of becoming hotbeds for new mutations.

The endemic scenario

It seems that a mutation, simply because it is a mutation, should not be frightened, and there is even a scenario that this will be the way out of a seemingly endless pandemic period. Endemic is when a pathogen reaches a level where mortality is low, symptoms are basically treatable, and it does not spread en masse — such as the flu. This is usually accompanied by a reduction in the pathogen’s reproductive rate to 1 – so an infected person can get an average of one person

How does the omicron fit this? As for the reproduction rate: no way. However, if we look at the symptoms, the new variant points out that perhaps the delta was a greater danger than the omirron, which is now spreading rapidly. If a virus mutates to infect more people, but to a lesser extent, this is a good thing to do, as the more people it catches, the more people develop immunity to it.

Of course, we need to see that the omicron is still dangerous enough for people infected to be hospitalized and die from it. This is where vaccinations come in, and much more symptomatic medications than ‘s) Pfizer paxlovide or Merck’s molnupyravir, which, if the vaccination is thorough, reduces the risk of hospitalization

The endemic scenario is perhaps the most beautiful and optimistic, and it may be decided in the coming months whether it is realistic or not. If the symptomatic drugs are successful, it will take us one step closer to imagining a coronavirus epidemic without a crisis – we will find out soon, as oral tablets are slowly appearing in Europe as well. There is also the question of what will happen to the omicron: it is certain that the endemic goal will be pushed out, but if it is not pushed out by another mutation, there is a good chance that this will be the end of the epidemiological crisis. And if there is a new variant, it is to be hoped that, like the omicron, it will have less and less symptoms, which could also lead to an endemic condition.

Home testing

© AFP

Negative scenario

It cannot be ruled out that pessimistic expectations will remain . Since we don’t know enough about omicron yet, and the vaccine campaign isn’t over yet, our days can still be spent wearing masks, staying away, and more waves of infection. If we are unlucky, the whole year could be the same: over time, a fourth vaccination may be needed, and although the experience of recent years will ease the summer, it is possible that we will be in a similar situation in the future.

We can hope that science will evolve, societies will learn, and if the omicron marks the direction of new mutations, then perhaps nature will help end one of the worst health crises in modern history.

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