Surprise eruptions are Earth’s overlooked threat

Sleeping giants? —

We knew that volcano was prone to eruptions—but there are many we’re not sure about.


Smoke and lightning engulf and erupting volcano.

Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai erupted on January 15 in one of the largest volcanic events in decades, and research in recent years indicates that the volcano produces similar violent eruptions about once every millennium. But some of the deadliest and most explosive eruptions in the last two centuries have come from volcanoes with no historical record of eruption. Now, scientists are taking a fresh look at surprise eruptions and seemingly quiet volcanoes.

Several smaller eruptions have happened at Tonga over the last century, providing some clues for what to expect. But forecasting volcanoes that have been dormant for hundreds or thousands of years is especially challenging. Mount Lamington in Papua New Guinea, for example, killed nearly 3,000 people and displaced thousands more when it erupted for the first time in recorded history in 1951.

“If this were to happen right now, in a region that is highly populated, like, for example, Indonesia or the Philippines, where millions of people live around volcanoes, the consequences for life would be really high,” said Vanesa Burgos, a PhD candidate at Nanyang Technological University (NTU).

An animation of satellite images of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption.

An animation of satellite images of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption.

Around the world, over 1,350 potentially active volcanoes simmer beneath the surface. To accurately forecast an eruption, experts need to understand a volcano’s past activity. However, records of hundreds of young volcanoes lack detail partly due to little or no monitoring, e.g., local systems to measure earthquake frequency or changes in off-gassing. About 40 percent of active volcanoes do not have a historical record of eruption, making new ones difficult to anticipate.

When Burgos was growing up in Spain, she wanted to study tornadoes. “But you know, tornadoes in Spain are not a thing,” she said. Trading one type of disaster for another, she did an assignment on the violent 1991 Pinatubo eruption and was impressed by the difference volcanologists were able to make. Though the volcano had no historical record of eruption prior to that, lives were saved thanks to monitoring systems that were in place.

Now, Burgos and colleagues have created the First Recorded EruptionS in the Holocene (FRESH) database to help identify other areas that could benefit from this sort of proactive monitoring.

Finding areas prone to surprise eruptions

Other databases catalogue information about active volcanoes, such as the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program (GVP) Holocene Volcano List, which is a benchmark for volcanologists. But Burgos and her colleagues found that various regions have differing degrees of under-recording, often influenced by historical events such as colonization, submarine volcanism, remoteness, and the level of human development, among other factors.

The researchers at NTU created the FRESH database to narrow the focus and help identify Asia-Pacific regions with higher chances of being surprised by an eruption from volcanoes that are geologically young. In this case, “young” means a volcano that hasn’t erupted during the last 12,000 years—the geological epoch known as the Holocene.

To do this, the team extracted the first known eruption from each active volcano listed in the GVP’s Holocene Volcano List, then created a database of young volcanoes without known Holocene eruptions. Comparing these to analogous volcanoes with previous surprise eruptions helped the researchers estimate the probability of a FRESH eruption occurring at volcanoes with no historical record. The researchers found that some regions particularly prone to under-recording that had higher FRESH eruption rates included Indonesia, Sumatra, the Philippines, and the Mariana Islands. Many of these areas have high populations, and an unexpected eruption of a volcano could be disastrous.

Burgos cautioned that this is preliminary work. “We’re not trying to shout ‘fire’ in the room,” she said. “We don’t know if these volcanoes are going to erupt any time soon. We’re just saying this is the probability that they might erupt, and this is how many people live around them.”

Mount Lamington unexpectedly erupted in late 1951, killing nearly 3,000 people.

Mount Lamington unexpectedly erupted in late 1951, killing nearly 3,000 people.

Note: This article have been indexed to our site. We do not claim legitimacy, ownership or copyright of any of the content above. To see the article at original source Click Here

Related Posts
These will be the new workplace standards after Covid thumbnail

These will be the new workplace standards after Covid

A Covid kezdetekor csak azt tudtuk, hogy meg fog változni a munkahelyi élet. Most már azt is látjuk, hogyan.  Az Adecco Csoport nemzetközi pandémiás kutatása 8 régió 25 országában vizsgálta, hogy a járvány után mik lesznek az új munkahelyi normák.  A világ egyik legnagyobb HR cége, az Adecco Csoport 25 ország közel 15 ezer irodai…
Read More
Los cinco gestos desconocidos para dominar Google Maps thumbnail

Los cinco gestos desconocidos para dominar Google Maps

La aplicación de Google Maps para móviles incluye una gran variedad de gestos que nos permiten explorar cada detalle de sus mapas, siendo pellizcar la pantalla con dos dedos el gesto para hacer zoom que todo el mundo conoce, pero hay otros gestos no tan conocidos para muchos usuarios. Google Maps, además de ese gesto…
Read More
BOE predstavio 27-inčni FHD 500 Hz+ ekran za igre, najveću stopu osvežavanja na svetu ikada na jednom monitoru thumbnail

BOE predstavio 27-inčni FHD 500 Hz+ ekran za igre, najveću stopu osvežavanja na svetu ikada na jednom monitoru

BOE Innovation Exchange najavljuje ogroman napredak kompanije u tehnologiji oksidnih poluprovodničkih displeja. Kompanija je takođe prevazišla prepreke koje su mučile industriju, kao što je bakar (Cu) koji lako oksidira i difuzuje, omogućavajući im da predvode industriju velike proizvodnje bakarnih struktura za međusobno povezivanje.Kompanija je predstavila 27-inčni ekran na svojoj veb stranici, koji nudi punu visoku…
Read More
Everyone will have an iPhone!  Not cheap, very cheap iPhone model is coming! thumbnail

Everyone will have an iPhone! Not cheap, very cheap iPhone model is coming!

Türkiye ve benzeri ülkelerde yeni çıkan iPhone modellerini almak neredeyse imkansız durumda. Malum, Türkiye'de ekonomik durum pek de iyi değil. Hal böyle olunca yeni bir telefon için 10.000 TL ve üzeri paralar vermek çok da mantıklı durmuyor. Normal bütçe skalasında yani 4000 TL ve civarında bir tutar ödeyerek alacağınız iPhone modeli ise günümüz standartlarının çok…
Read More
Index Of News
Consider making some contribution to keep us going. We are donation based team who works to bring the best content to the readers. Every donation matters.
Donate Now

Subscription Form

Liking our Index Of News so far? Would you like to subscribe to receive news updates daily?

Total
0
Share