ECB Preview: Three scenarios and their implications for EUR/USD – TDS

Economists at TD Securities discuss the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision and their implications for the EUR/USD pair.

Hawkish (10%)

The GC delivers another 25 bps hike but the statement strikes a more hawkish tone than in May. Lagarde removes any doubts about GC’s hawkish shift and stresses a high likelihood that rates will be raised at least 2x more due to elevated inflation persistence. EUR/USD +0.65%.

Base Case (60%)

The GC hikes by 25 bps and keeps language around future hikes unchanged. Similar to in May, Lagarde remains noncommittal in language around future hikes but suggests that risks are skewed to further tightening. EUR/USD -0.15%.

Dovish (30%)

25 bps hike, but statement strikes a more dovish tone than in May. Lagarde more cautious than in May and signals at most one more hike in this tightening cycle. EUR/USD -0.50%.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.