- Bitcoin is setting up for a strong week, up 3.67% at the time of writing.
- Why I believe the underlying market conditions favour the bulls at present.
- Altcoin analysis – SEI and BONK
Strong week so far for the bulls, with Bitcoin rallying early this week back above $70,000 momentarily. It’s gearing up for a strong finish for March should we continue to hold prices at these levels or continue higher.
Below are my thoughts on why the current underlying conditions favour the bulls until proven otherwise.
US Economic Roadmap Uncertainty Now Lifted
As we mentioned last week, there was some uncertainty on the future of US fiscal policy, specifically interest rates. After two consecutive months of higher inflation data, there were fears that rate drops would be postponed.
The outcome was that, even though it’s important to keep an eye on inflation data, it wasn’t significant enough to change the plan of reducing interest rates in 2024. I viewed this as a positive sign for those who are optimistic about the market.
US Approves $1.2 Trillion USD Spending Bill
Another noteworthy event last week was the sign-off on a spending bill of $1.2 trillion USD by President Joe Biden. Biden described the spending as ‘investing in Americans’ and strengthening the economy and national defence.
Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Back Buying
Following an approximate 16% decline during the past two weeks, we’ve noticed institutional investors again back purchasing the spot Bitcoin ETFs. Certain ETFs are rebounding more robustly than others. If the momentum returns to its previous level, the upward trend that has characterised all of 2024 could resume. This data can be viewed for free here.
Any shift in the themes of economic stimulus, interest rates, and ETF flows would be likely a change in my thoughts. However, the above are key reasons why I think the bulls should remain active for now.
Related: Analyst Predicts Link Rally, Massive Price Targets Unveiled Amid Tokenisation Developments
Bitcoin – BTC
Looking at some very simple range analysis below, are my thoughts on the current state of the market heading into the weekend.
Bullish scenario
Price continues to move higher towards the middle of the Range identified above. Ideally, a new higher high above $70,00 USD can then solidify a new uptrend forming.
Bearish scenario
During the remainder of the week, Bitcoin is back under the Range Low of $69,500 USD. This may resume the most recent downtrend.
Sei – SEI
A newer layer-1 project that we have covered before, SEI is showing some interesting technicals on a higher time frame.
Using range analysis again, we can see that SEI has reclaimed the range low (purple arrow).
Bullish scenario
From here, if market participants continue to bid the next target could be the midpoint of this range ($0.9728) and the top of the range ($1.1447).
Following this type of price action, should we see the broader market (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana etc) start to breakout SEI may also start to make new all-time highs.
Bearish scenario
Failure to reach or hold above the range low ($0.8262) in this scenario would set up a likely downtrend lower.
Bonk – BONK
Should the recent trend of meme coins continue to perform well in the market, BONK is currently positioned well technically.
Using range analysis again we can set some ‘if this, then that’ statements that are bullish and bearish.
Bullish scenario
Reclaiming this range low is a big area for the bulls to claim. Should this occur, we could then expect the next key levels to be the range midpoint ($0.00003583).
Bearish scenario
Losing this range low would likely set up a scenario for a downtrend to a new low below $0.00001949.
—
See you all again next week.
Keep up to date.
Stay informed and connected! I’m excited to announce my new YouTube channel, Crypto with Pav, where I dive into the latest trends in cryptocurrency, offering insights on what’s coming next and highlighting news and technical structure I believe is crucial.
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Cheers!
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