Aaron Judge’s Yankees extension: What’s the price tag and how will it affect future payroll?

No matter who the Yankees add to their roster once MLB’s lockout ends, Aaron Judge is still the heart and soul of the organization.

And it’s just about time for him to get paid, too.

Judge is entering his final year of arbitration, which means if a deal isn’t figured out before or during the season, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent after it.

It’s a Post-It note that will be on Cashman’s computer monitor until a deal is done and ink is placed on paper. And it certainly needs to happen.

No, it’s not a question of whether Judge deserves a contract or not. He’s more than earned it, as you can make the argument he should be the next Yankee captain.

The better question is what exactly should be the right extension for No. 99 because…we’re not talking Mike Trout money over here.

But are we talking Bryce Harper money? Or Mookie Betts bucks?

It’s hard to say for sure what the final number is going to be, especially considering the amount of negotiations that have to take place to make a superstar in this game happy. Judge is a selfless player on the field, but this is the first time he has a chance to test the market. He’s stated he wants to be a Yankee for life, but money always talks and he knows his worth.

Last year he proved it with a .287/.373/.544 slash line with 39 dingers, 98 RBI and a .916 OPS over 148 games. Battling injuries the years prior — and still putting up numbers — Judge wanted to make sure availability was his biggest goal and he accomplished that with the stats to prove it.

So there’s no question Brian Cashman & Co. should start talking about contracts before he can even think about leaving.

According to Spotrac’s market value on Judge, his yearly salary should be around $25.4 million. And they break it down based off what other players with comparable stats have gotten from there teams. Those players are:

– J.T. Realmuto: five years, $115.5 million (23.1 million AAV)
– Bryce Harper: 13 years, $330 million (25.38 million AAV)
– Paul Goldschmidt: five years, $130 million (26 million AAV)
– Mookie Betts: 12 years, $365 million (30.42 million AAV)

It’s interesting because two players took short-term pacts, while the others are locked in for a long while with their clubs. But, at the end of the day, it’s the AAV that really matters and these are right around each other.

The Yankees, then, should look at something around the seven- to nine-year range with Judge. Of course, opt-out clauses and other essentials will be in there. But if Judge does want to be a Yankee for life, this makes sense. He’s turning 30 on April 26 this year, and though we can never know when a player will hang up his cleats, 37-39 years old is a good range to have there.

The price tag? As we said, Judge is a superstar and will be paid accordingly, but Cashman will factor in other things like just two full seasons in six years. That in mind, I think the market will generate a deal that has around a $26-28 million AAV like that of Goldschmidt. The deal could easily sit higher in that $28 million range, but for the sake of this article, let’s say it’s an eight-year deal, worth $216 million ($27 million AAV).

How would that affect the payroll moving forward? Well, if the deal were to be signed before the start of the season — which seems very unlikely because of the lockout — it would certainly make some trouble for Cashman, who is likely to go over the luxury tax already with the free-agent additions the team is expected to make.

But there’s always the possibility Judge plays on his $17.5 million he’s getting this season and then the extension kicks in during the 2023 campaign. And that would be best considering tons of cap space is being cleared for such a deal.

Aroldis Chapman and Zack Britton have their contracts expiring, and they’re accounting for $30 million combined this year. There’s also Joey Gallo, Gary Sanchez, Jameson Taillon and others hitting free agency, too.

So the effect wouldn’t be major at all for Judge. In fact, this is what Cashman was probably waiting for, this moment where the baby bombers were due for new deals. Having that preparation allows for cap room to be available.

Overall, the best bet for the Yankees would be to negotiate a deal during the season and hammer it out before he reaches free agency. If the talks are quick, he can get it done with the extension starting in 2023 on the books and keeping everything status quo now.

Judge is going to get paid and keeping him in pinstripes has to be a priority for New York. The above mentioned price tag should make both sides happy.