According to forecasts: Governing Socialists will win the new elections in Portugal

Prime Minister António Costa is allowed to attempt a new edition of the “miracle” that was much celebrated in the EU country before the outbreak of the corona pandemic. Contrary to expectations, his Socialist Party (PS) achieved a great triumph in the new parliamentary elections: The more social-democratic PS won the absolute majority in the “Assembleia da República” in Lisbon with almost 42 percent: According to official information, it will be at least 117 of the total occupy 230 seats.

“Costa’s huge success,” said state television broadcaster RTP. A TV commentator spoke of a “blank check” for the PS. In his victory speech, however, Costa showed restrained jubilation and humble greatness. “Absolute majority does not mean absolute power. We will not govern alone, »emphasized the 60-year-old. Costa promised “dialogue” and that he would govern “for all Portuguese”.

The PS improved by more than five percentage points compared to the last election in autumn 2019. The lead over the second-placed conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD) led by top candidate Rui Rio was almost 14 points. The polls had recently predicted a close race, the media mocked Costa’s desired goal of an absolute majority as a pipe dream.

Costa has led two minority governments since the end of 2015, led by smaller left-wing parties such as the Marxist Left Bloc (BE), the communists (PCP) and the Greens (PEV). There was no formal coalition agreement. The cooperation broke up last autumn when BE, PCP and PEV, together with the conservative opposition, rejected Costa’s draft budget for 2022 in parliament. President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa then called new elections at the beginning of November.

António Costa on January 30, 2022.Image: keystone

The former allies had received help from the socialist government, also with a view to the billions in corona aid from the EU among other things, more social spending in the 2022 budget. However, Costa did not want to give up his cautious spending policy. Now Costa is no longer dependent on the complicated “living together” with the small groups – mockingly called “Geringonça” (rattling scaffolding) by the media and political rivals.

In Election campaign Costa had said again and again that only with a “stable government” would it be possible to build on the successes of the time before the pandemic. After the difficult years of the euro crisis, he led Portugal very successfully. Between 2016 and 2019, the economic growth of the small country with only 10.3 million inhabitants was well above the EU average, also thanks to booming tourism. The unemployment rate has been reduced rapidly – and despite the pandemic it is still only a good six percent. For comparison: The neighboring country , which is a lot stronger economically, Spain has more than 13 percent.

Costa managed the balancing act of showing social responsibility and at the same time consolidating the once ailing state finances. The trained lawyer increased the monthly minimum wage from about 505 to 705 most recently Euro. Socialist delegations from across Europe flocked to Lisbon to copy the recipe for success. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) recently described Costa as “a tireless advocate of social justice”.

But Costa must not rest on its laurels. He is facing major challenges: During the election campaign, the left and right rivals of the PS rightly pilloried the high tax burden, the low pensions of often less than 300 euros, the sometimes really miserable salaries and the worsening housing shortage. Young and not so young people continue to emigrate en masse because of these problems.

Costa needs quick success, also to take the wind out of the sails of the right-wing populists from Chega (It’s enough). In addition to the PS, the party of top candidate André Ventura was the second big winner of Sunday’s vote. It improved from 1.29 to 7.15 percent compared to 2019 and increased the number of MPs from one to at least eleven. (saw/sda/dpa)

More and more Portuguese are going back to their homeland

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