COVID-19: Ontario reports 466 new cases as province awaits new modelling report

Ontario has flattened the fourth wave of the pandemic, but the situation remains highly unpredictable as colder weather arrives and more people head indoors, says Ontario’s science advisory table.

In its latest report, released Tuesday, the panel of experts said the combination of vaccinations and public health measures have kept the situation stable.

New cases of COVID-19 and the number of people in hospital or intensive care are not increasing, said the report.

However, the report called the situation “fragile” and its projections of what might happen in the next few weeks vary widely.

While the recent case levels have been encouraging, the scientists continue to urge caution and a reduction in contacts among people to avoid the risk of a rapid increase in cases and the number of people in intensive care units.

“Continued control over case growth requires high vaccination rates in the eligible population, continued public health measures, and a flattening of growth in mobility.”

If Ontario continues on its current trajectory, with no change in government policy or people’s behaviour, the number of new daily cases could rise to around 1,600 a day in November, according to the report. The current seven-day average of new daily cases is 606.

On the other hand, if transmission of the virus increases by 25 per cent, the number of daily cases could shoot up to 5,000 a day. And if transmission decreases by 25 per cent, the number of new cases a day would be well under 500.

The number of people in intensive care with COVID-19, another key indicator, could range from under 200 to over 300 by the end of October, the report said.

There are 180 people with COVID-19 in ICU. During the peak of the third wave last April, when the health care system was strained to the limit, there were nearly 900 people in Ontario’s intensive care units with COVID-19.

Some of the factors that make predictions difficult, according to the report: it’s still uncertain how effective the vaccines are against infection; it’s too early to see the impact of the return to school and workplaces; and the impact of people spending more time indoors is uncertain.

The report also warned that long-term COVID symptoms will impact the health of 10 per cent of the Ontario population and put strain on the health-care system.

About one in 10 people with COVID-19 will have symptoms that continue for more than 12 weeks, the report said. That represent about 57,000 to 78,000 Ontario residents.

The report also noted that cases among children are increasing, notably among those age 5 to 11. The number of cases in that age group has risen from around 10 per 100,000 population in July to close to 60 now.

Vaccines have not been approved for children under age 12.

There has also been a surge in the number of children tested, however, as schools opened and students resumed daily screening for COVID-19 symptoms.

A spokesperson for Health Minister Christine Elliott said the modelling “further reinforces that as a result of Ontario’s extremely cautious approach, including maintaining strong public health measures such as indoor masking, the province’s public health and health care indicators remain stable or are improving.

“In fact, Ontario continues to report one of the lowest rates of active cases in the country, well below the national average, as we have trended toward the best-case scenario projected in the last modelling,” said Alexandra Hilkene.

Ontario reported 466 more people with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday.

Most of those people — 347 — are not fully vaccinated or their vaccination status is unknown, Health Minister Christine Elliott posted in her daily update.

Eleven more people in Ontario have died, bringing the death toll to 9,715, the province reported.

There are 315 people in hospital with the illness, with 180 of those patients in intensive care.

The number of eligible residents who have received two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine has inched up to 80.48  per cent, compared to 80.3 per cent reported Monday, according to the province.

Meanwhile, Ontario’s medical regulator says it has imposed a number of restrictions on a family physician accused of spreading misinformation about COVID-19.

The College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario says Dr. Patrick Phillips, whose main practice is at Englehart and District Hospital near Kirkland Lake in northeastern Ontario, is barred from providing medical exemptions regarding COVID-19 vaccines, masking requirements and testing.

Phillips is also prohibited from prescribing ivermectin — an antiparasitic agent that Health Canada says should not be used for treating COVID-19 — as well as fluvoxamine and atorvastatin in connection with the virus, says the regulator.

The college alleges that between August 2020 and this month, Phillips engaged in disgraceful, dishonourable or unprofessional conduct in his communications regarding the pandemic, including on social media, including making misleading, incorrect or inflammatory statements on COVID-19 vaccines, treatments and public health measures.

The case has been referred to its disciplinary tribunal but a hearing date has not yet been set.

Latest COVID-19 news in Ottawa

Ottawa Public Health reported 16 more people with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 on Tuesday, bringing the total number of cases since the pandemic began to 29,734.

There were no new deaths and the toll remains at 595.

There are 17 more patients in hospital, 10 of them in intensive care.

The city is aware of 412 active cases of the disease.

OPH reported one new outbreak, at Briargreen Public School, where two students or visitors tested positive.

There are currently 18 ongoing outbreaks in schools and child care centres. The largest is at Montfort elementary school in the east end, with 10 students or visitors and one staff member identified in the outbreak. According to the French Catholic school board, as of Tuesday there have been a total of 18 people identified with COVID-19 at Montfort since classes resumed this fall, but 11 of the cases have been resolved.

The next largest outbreak is at St. Benedict elementary in southeast Ottawa, with eight students or visitors testing positive, and La Coccinelle des Sentiers child care centre at des Sentiers school, with one staff and seven students identified with COVID-19.

In Ottawa-area regions Eastern Ontario Health Unit reported seven new cases. There were five new cases reported in Renfrew County, three in Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington, and two in Leeds, Grenville and Lanark.

On the vaccine front, the Leeds, Grenville and Lanark District Health Unit says it is the first  health unit in Ontario to reach the milestone of 90 per cent of residents age 12 and up receiving two doses of COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccines have not been approved for children under 12.

Latest COVID-19 news in Quebec

Health Minister Christian Dubé said Tuesday that the province is preparing to administer third doses of COVID-19 vaccines to residents of long-term care facilities and private seniors’ residences (RPAs), despite a very high vaccination rate.

In early September, there were about 10 active cases in these settings. There are now 140 active cases in CHSLDs and RPAs.

He said Quebec expects to deliver third vaccines to an additional  220,000 residents.

“We are seeing that there could be a decrease in vaccine effectiveness after a certain period, as has been seen in other parts of the world,” Dubé said.

The interval between the second dose and third dose should be about six months, he said, adding that residents of CHSLDs and RPAs were mostly given second doses in March and April.

Vaccinators will visit CHSLDs and RPAs to vaccinate residents, who will also be offered the flu vaccine, Dubé said.

He said there’s no plan to provide third doses to other seniors.

He also noted that Quebec is seeing an increase in hospitalizations, with the unvaccinated 30 times more likely to end up in hospitals and in intensive care units than the vaccinated.

Quebec reported 469 new cases of COVID-19 and six new deaths on Tuesday.

It was the first time since August that the daily case count has fallen below 500.

However, the province also registered its biggest one-day net increase in hospitalizations since April.

There were 37 new patients in hospital, while 15 were discharged, for a total of 321.

Nine more patients were in ICU, while 10 were discharged, bringing the total to 94.

There were 6,629 vaccine doses administered over the previous 24 hours.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Quebec has reported 408,931 cases and 11,362 deaths linked to COVID-19.

-with files from The Canadian Press and Postmedia