by Stefania Chiale
The wave began in mid-December with the Omicron variant, the new positive cases are growing but the trend is stabilizing
The peak of January 4th, for now, holds. And this is shown by a graph in the hands of the Lombard Welfare Directorate General and viewed by Corriere, which shows the increase in new positives in the last 7 days over the previous week. It is a column chart that every day marks the difference between the sum of the weekly cases and the sum of the cases of the previous week. In this way we see not so much the increase in cases from week to week, which evidently continues to exist, but the acceleration or deceleration in the increase of cases . And from here, therefore, the surge, the peak, the slowdown, the famous “plateau” and – finally – the descent of infections. But let’s go in order.
( here the healed trapped in domestic isolation; here the analysis of intensive care: no vax at 70%; here the boom in infections among students of Milan).
The trend of cases
For now, the curve that plots the increase in the new positives in the last 7 days on the previous week continues to maintain the design of a peak on January 4, with a subsequent descent in the following days, also very sudden. From November 28th to today the graph shows the start of the climb starting from mid-December , constantly up to January 4th. The day after which we witness – even without taking into account the “distorted” data of the Epiphany, with a very low level of tests carried out – a continuous descent. Until Tuesday, where the difference between the sum of the cases in the last 7 days and the sum in the previous week is incredibly lower than in the days before it.
How to read the data
How to continue reading the graph? As mentioned, it does not mean that the infections are not increasing from week to week and that they do not remain high (yesterday Lombardy recorded 41,050 new cases), but that week by week the increase in cases decreases, slows down . When it approaches “zero” it means that Lombardy will be on a plateau, that is, in a period in which infections remain substantially stable, fluctuating slightly upwards or downwards. A phase that precedes, if managed by keeping the foreseen emergency measures active, the descent of infections . Reaching the plateau means, that is, having no difference between the sum of the cases of a week and the previous one, that is, being in a period of stability of the infections. On the other hand, when this difference goes below “zero” it means that the infections decrease from one week to the next. The point we all hope to get to as soon as possible.
The unknown of schools
The great unknown with respect to this peak may be represented by the reopening of schools , as the virologist and member of the regional CTS Fabrizio Pregliasco explained to Corriere : the return to class could lead to a new surge in the increase of infections and therefore move the peak again further on. In short, everything is played out in the coming days and weeks to come: we will see if the increase in cases will undergo a new acceleration or if we can continue to think that the worst is over.
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13 January 2022 (changes the January 13, 2022 | 08:48)
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