Most economists believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain monetary stimulus for at least two more years. The conclusion is from a survey carried out by the British newspaper Financial Times, after several central banks announced that they will reduce the purchase of assets later this year.
After the ECB has announced that it will increase the rhythm of monthly net purchases of the program created by Mario Draghi to compensate for the the end of the pandemic purchases, the question remains as to when the purchase of assets will completely end. Of the 32 economists surveyed by the Financial Times, three quarters believe that the ECB will only stop stimulating the European economy at the end of 2023.
Until then, most economists believe that the ECB will maintain an expansionary monetary policy. Only a quarter of respondents have a different opinion, stating that the monetary authority led by Christine Lagarde should end Mario Draghi’s stimulus program between this year and next.
Last year At the ECB meeting in December, Christine Lagarde announced the end of the envelope created just for the pandemic (the PEPP) in March, while the purchase of debt from the former regular program (the APP) was increased to 40 billion euros, double the current rate, to compensate for the closure of the PEPP.
This increase will start in the second quarter of the year and decrease to 30 billion in the third quarter. After October, the pace of asset purchases is expected to return to the current amount of 20 billion per month, and it is not clear how long this stimulus program will continue.
For In response to rising inflation, several central banks have already announced a reduction in monetary stimulus, as was the case with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. In the case of the United States, the pace of stimulus withdrawal was accelerated and should be concluded in March. In England, it was announced that net purchases will stop until the end of the year.
Inflation in the Eurozone soared to 4.9% in November, an all-time high since the single currency was launched. The ECB believes, however, that inflation is temporary and that it is expected to fall below 2% in 2023.
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