The Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) adjusted downwards its estimates of economic growth for Mexicoto 2.9 percent in 2022, from 3.2 percent scheduled last August.
Meanwhile, ECLAC’s forecast for GDP performance in 2021 remained at 5.8 percent, due to the slowdown in the economy of the United States and China with an impact on global trade.”There is a profound uncertainty at the global level and enormous asymmetries in the response capacity in macroeconomic, productive, and health terms between countries,” he said at the presentation of the report Preliminary Balance of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2021
The region faces a very complex 2022 with the persistence and uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic, a sharp slowdown in growth, low investment, productivity and slow recovery of employment, persistence of the social effects caused by the crisis, less fiscal space , increases in inflationary pressures and financial imbalances. A slowdown in global trade is estimated, with a growth of 10.8 percent in 2021 and this year it is estimated to grow by 4.7 percent in 2022.“The expected slowdown in the region in 2022, together with the structural problems of low investment and productivity, poverty and inequality, require that strengthening growth be a central element of policies, while addressing inflationary pressures and macrofinancial risks” , pointed out Alicia Bárcena.ECLAC identifies five elements of risk for the region in 2022, the slowdown in growth, the persistence of low investment, inflationary pressures and higher interest rates, the depreciation of currencies against the dollar and the low rating of sovereign debt by the rating agencies.The institution estimates that GDP growth in Latin America will grow 2.1 percent from an estimated 6.2 percent expansion in 2021. The Caribbean will grow 6.1 percent, Central America will grow 4.5 percent, while South America will grow 1.4 percent. hundred.”One of the central issues in the region this year is growth, and for this they will have to resort to fiscal and monetary policies that prioritize growth with real stability rather than nominal,” said the official at the virtual press conference.
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