Will we all fill up soon like this? Charging station at the San Gottardo motorway service station.
Image: KEYSTONE / TI-PRESS
Analysis
The higher oil price will accelerate the switch to electric cars.
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Economics students learn already in the first semester what a pig cycle is. It’s also easy to understand: lack of pork equals high prices. Farmer breeds pigs. Pork excess. Prices are falling, farmer does not raise pigs. Pork shortage, back to square one.
With oil there is a pig cycle on stilts. Small changes in the world economy have an almost immediate, large effect on the price of oil. When the economy slumped due to the corona, there was soon an oil surplus worldwide. Because soon all the stores were filled to the top, you sometimes even received money if you committed to buy the oil from the dealers.
A tanker leaves the depot in Hemel Hempstead, England.
Image: keystone
Now the oil price is hovering around $ 80 a barrel again, and it is to be expected that it will continue to rise. Because OPEC +, the traditional oil producers plus Russia, have decided not to give in to the urging of the Americans and not to increase production. So they hope to stand up to the pig cycle this time.
There are a number of reasons why we have to prepare for a period with higher energy prices. Producers are unsettled because even the International Energy Agency (IEA) recently recommended in a sensational report not to open up new oil fields because of global warming. Many banks therefore refuse to finance such projects.
That before Shale oil, especially in the USA , has fallen into disrepute not only because of its production method, fracking. It can also be seen that although these sources supply a lot of oil in the short term, they quickly dry up again. Because of the fluctuations in the oil price, many producers had to file for bankruptcy in the Covid doldrums.
A high oil price may hurt your wallet in the short term, but in the long term it is a blessing in many ways. It not only accelerates the transition from oil heating to heat pumps. Above all, he drives the petrol monsters off the streets. If the price for one liter approaches the two-franc mark, even die-hard pick-up and SUV drivers begin to think about alternatives.
US President Joe Biden in the electric Ford F 150.
Picture: keystone
During the last gasoline price boom, many switched to an economical gasoline engine. Now they are squinting for a electric car . Which car owner is currently not considering whether their next car should not be an electric vehicle? The advantages have become numerous and obvious. And here are the reasons:
- Electric cars are simply better than gasoline-powered vehicles. Anyone who has been a proud owner of such a vehicle or has driven in it will confirm this. In addition, you can usually still benefit from subsidies when buying.
- Gone are the days when electric cars were associated with greens and unworldly intellectuals. Even the mother of all petrol monsters, the Ford F 150, is now available in an electric version. And this version is so successful that Ford recently announced plans to invest billions of dollars in new manufacturing facilities and battery factories. The German manufacturers are also announcing electric versions of their luxury SUVs, sedans and sports cars every week.
- Thanks to improved batteries, the electric car’s Achilles heel has been eliminated, the range. Today nobody has to fear getting stuck halfway.
- A number of countries have announced that only electric cars will be allowed to be sold by 2040 at the latest.
- Finally, Corona has also led to a rethink in the direction of electric cars.
Not only Tesla benefits from the electric car boom. For example, Polestar, a Volvo subsidiary, is no longer delivering its electric vehicles. “It’s no longer a niche market like it was two or three years ago,” says Jonathan Goodman, head of Polestar UK, in the “Financial Times.”
In fact, sales of electric cars are literally exploding. Forecasts assume that more than 10 million e-mobiles will be sold in 2025 and around 30 million in 2030. No wonder the auto industry is investing heavily. According to the consulting firm McKinsey, it has been around $ 100 billion since 2020. Another $ 330 billion is expected to be added over the next five years.
Tesla charging stations. A nationwide network has yet to be built.
Image: keystone
Nissan launched the first mass-market electric car on the market in 2010 with the Leaf. Andy Palmer was there in a leading position at the time. Today he says in the “Financial Times”: “It’s like the transition from horse-drawn carriage to car. The tremor is seismic. It will change everything to such an extent that those who do not adapt quickly enough, who do not invest enough, no longer have a future. ”
So what can the triumph of the electric car do? still hold up? On the one hand the price. Although there is now a wide range of models, there is still room for improvement in the lowest price segment. Above all, however, there is still a lack of a nationwide network of charging stations.
While the high oil price will encourage the electric car boom among SMEs, it may have the opposite effect among the poorer rural population. The protests of the Gilets jaunes in France were driven by an ecologically justified petrol tax of the Government triggered.
Protested against a new gasoline tax: The Gilets jaunes.
Image: keystone
BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, has committed itself to making ecology a central role in its investments. But CEO Larry Fink already warned last July: “We are risking a price increase for consumers – especially for those who cannot afford it – and we are risking that the transition will not be politically feasible.”
Hyundai presents perhaps the most exciting electric car in 2021
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Hyundai presents perhaps the most exciting electric car in 2021
source: hyundai
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