Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle United 2

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the latest round of results with the Premier League Expected Goals stats (actual final scoreline in brackets) by Understat:

Friday 17 March

Nottingham Forest 0.53 v Newcastle United 2.50 (1-2)

Saturday 18 March

Aston Villa 3.45 Bournemouth 0.50 (3-0)

Brentford 0.48 v Leicester 1.42 (1-1)

Southampton 2.52 v Tottenham 1.88 (3-3)

Wolves 2.76 v Leeds 1.65 (2-4)

Chelsea 1.90 v Everton 1.65 (2-2)

Sunday 19 March

Arsenal 1.54 v Crystal Palace 1.19 (4-1)

As you can see, in the NUFC match, Newcastle United (2.50) had a five times bigger expected goals rating than Forest (0.53) and simply reflects what we all saw. Newcastle completely dominant with far more and better chances than the home side, who were lucky to only lose by one goal.

Aston Villa (3.45) were the only team to have a bigger disparity with their opponent (Bournemouth 0.50) than Newcastle with Forest, Villa winning that game 3-0.

Interesting to see Chelsea (1.90) v Everton (1.65) was a pretty fair 2-2 result, based on the expected goals data.

Arsenal (1.54) deserving to beat Palace (1.19) but the 4-1 scoreline flattering them, I saw the highlights and some superb Arsenal finishing rather than them having loads more clear chances than Palace.

Southampton (2.52) needed two late goals to get a point against Tottenham (1.88) but those expected goals stats showing that overall it was Spurs lucky to get the 3-3 draw based on clear chances. No wonder Conte was a ‘little’ unhappy!

Brentford (0.48) a little fortunate to get a 1-1 draw against Leicester (1.42).

Whilst Wolves 2.76 ended up losing 4-2 to Leeds (1.65) and again, having watched the highlights, Wolves had far more / better opportunities than Leeds but their finishing let them down, the opposite for the away side.

Stats from BBC Sport:

Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 – Friday 17 March 8pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 45+2, 90+3 pretty

Forest:

Dennis 26

(Half-time stats in brackets)

Possession was Forest 39% (47%) Newcastle 61% (53%)

Total shots were Forest 5 (2) Newcastle 15 (6)

Shots on target were Forest 3 (2) Newcastle 4 (1)

Corners were Forest 3 (1) Newcastle 7 (2)

Referee: Paul Tierney

Attendance: 29,362 (Newcastle 2,900)

Newcastle United:

Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Longstaff, Bruno, Willock, Murphy (Ritchie 84), Isak, Saint-Maximin (Anderson 45)

Unused Subs:

Dubravka, Dummett, Lascelles, Targett, Manquillo, Lewis, Wilson

(Match Report – Hooters on London Road provides a perfect halfway house between the City Ground and Nottingham centre – Read HERE)

(Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 – Match ratings and comments on all the NUFC players – Go HERE)

(3 Positives and 3 Negatives to take from Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 – Ready HERE)

(Watch official Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 match highlights HERE – Goals, excitement, controversy)

(Official Newcastle United injury update following Friday’s 2-1 win over Nottingham Forest – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Very interesting on Newcastle United after win against Nottingham Forest – Read HERE)

(Good morning Tyneside! Just look at that Premier League table now…Read HERE)

(Gary Neville tackles the controversy after Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 – Read HERE)

(Nottingham Forest 1 Newcastle 2 – The instant NUFC fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)