Heat-Celtics Game 7 picks, best bets: How Boston can pull off historic comeback against Miami

Now that we’re in the thick of theNBAplayoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and theNBAFinals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics

We’ve covered this frequently: Game 7’s are low-scoring. The last 16 Game 7’s have averaged a total of 195.6 points. The Celtics have already played one Game 7 this postseason, and the total came in at 200 total points. The Heat are a worse offensive team than the Sixers were, and that doesn’t even account for the injuries that they’re dealing with. If you take one lesson from all of the picks we publish every postseason, it should be this: take Game 7 unders. The Pick: Under 203

Game 7’s may be low-scoring… but are they close? We’ve had five of them in the past two seasons. Four were decided by at least 20 points each. The fifth? Heat-Celtics… from a season ago… which came down to one Jimmy Butler 3-pointer. Miami and Boston just played an almost exact replica of that game on Saturday. Boston had a big fourth-quarter lead. Miami stormed back. The Heat missed a 3-pointer that could have swung the outcome (this time by Duncan Robinson). The Celtics ultimately broke Miami’s heart on a thrilling game-winning putback by Derrick White. But keep in mind that Games 4 and 5 were double-digit Celtic victories. The Celtics may have needed a miracle to win Game 6, but Miami made twice as many 3-pointers. Right now, there’s quite a bit of evidence suggesting that the Celtics have figured out the Heat. Asking Miami to come back from the loss they just had seems a bit ambitious. Expect the Celtics to take care of business at home. The Pick: Celtics -7.5

Butler shot five-of-21 from the field in Game 6… and still finished with 24 points. That’s the power of being able to get to the line consistently. Butler looked exhausted at the very least for most of Game 6, and he may be dealing with a nagging injury, but 5-of-21 just isn’t a realistic expectation for him moving forward. Considering his raw volume alone, if he comes even close to making half of his field goal attempts, he clears his point total comfortably at the foul line alone. Miami desperately needs him to create offense, and the whole team is gassed now that Erik Spoelstra has essentially trimmed the rotation to seven. Miami’s only path to victory right now is a big Butler game. Whether or not he delivers remains to be seen, but we can trust him to at least take a bunch of shots. The Pick: Butler Over 28.5 Points