How will the Colombian economy do in 2022?

The study centers agree that the GDP will close in 2022 above 4%.

Bank of the Republic

BY:

January 20, 2022 – 11 :22 AM m.

2022-01-20

2022-01-20

As the year begins to run and the economy begins to reveal other cards for 2022, experts, study centers and economic analysis directorates of banking entities, and even President Iván Duque, have been presenting new perspectives for this year’s GDP.

(‘We expect growth in 2021 to reach 10%’: Duque).

The president expressed this Wednesday, in a speech made within the framework of the World Economic Forum (WEF), that he hopes that “ our growth is above 5% in 2022 and positions us as one of the most important economies to recover pre-pandemic levels and thus continue closing social gaps” .

From the Government they point to a growth of 5 5 in 2022.

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BANK ASSOCIATION

Asobancaria published a couple of days ago its first edition of the weekly Ban ca and Economy, and there, the banking union highlighted how 2022 is presented as a year in which economic activity “s will expand at a rate close to to 4% (with a range of 3.5% – 4.5%). This figure, although lower than that forecast for 2021 (10.3 %), will allow the components and branches of activity that are lagging behind to continue their recovery process, as well as the labor market, the external balance and public finances, ”said the union.

(Credits in Colombia: who are the ones who receive them the most).

BANCO ITAÚ

On the other hand, Banco Itaú highlighted in its latest macro perspectives document, as in the case of Colombia, “ the external environment is still favorable, the absence of important restrictions on mobility and expansionary macroeconomic policies are supporting a rapid GDP recovery”.

Hence, the entity forecasts economic growth of 3.7%, supported by a favorable drag and solid terms exchange. In addition, it was highlighted how “the recovery of domestic demand and the greater income deficit would offset the positive effect of the high terms of trade on exports.”

BBVA RESEARCH

But despite the president’s optimism, several of the estimates that have been delivered in recent days are closer to 4%. This is how BBVA Research confirmed yesterday its outlook for this year, 4%, and delivered a growth forecast of 2.8% for 2023. According to the bank, the economy is already slowing down, and final consumption will give way to investment and exports.

(BBVA expects distribute among its shareholders 7,000 million euros).

“In 2022 and 2023 the recovery process will continue but, as expected, at a more gradual pace. We expect consumption to lose momentum and investment in construction, both housing and civil works, to partially offset it. We are also optimistic about a greater dynamism in the export sector, both in traditional goods, mainly associated with mining, and in non-traditional industrial and agricultural products”, assured Juana Téllez, BBVA Research chief economist for Colombia.

For many analysts, investment and exports will gain ground in 2022.

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FEDESARROLLO

One of the first study centers to announce its projections for this year was Fedesarrollo, which on January 4 delivered its forecast according to which the Colombian economy would close 2022 with a growth of 4.6%, a figure slightly higher than that of BBVA Research and Asobancaria, and the most optimistic .

(Dealer confidence remains at historical levels).

For the director of Fedesarrollo, Luis Fernando Mejía, this growth is higher than the average estimated by the IMF, which indicates that the Colombian economy will close with an expansion of 3%.

He added that although the projections are located At this time, at 4.6%, a figure above 5% is not ruled out due to advances in vaccination and the better dynamics of household consumption.

ANIF

For its part, the National Association of Financial Institutions (Anif) projects economic growth for Colombia in 2022 that ranges between 4.1% and 4.4%.

The Anif did or an upward revision of its GDP projections, since in its last report its forecast was 3.8%.

(Anif highlights the decrease in unemployment).

In his report he explains that the main risk that their projections run is that possible new contagion peaks or new variants of covid are mitigated “ with strategies that have already proven fallible and counterproductive in economic and social terms, such as quarantines and closures of operations to productive activity”.

CREDICORP CAPITAL

Credicorp Capital also highlighted this week as the rapid acceleration of the covid-19 contagion in recent weeks (although with a significantly lower mortality), added to the deterioration of household disposable income “due to acute food inflation, can cause a slowdown slowdown of activity at the beginning of 2022”.

(Colombia’s GDP would grow 4% in 2022, according to Credicorp Capital).

The entity indicated that it maintains a projection of a strong expansion of the GDP this year (4.0%), “since the scenario of high international prices of export products should increasingly affect local growth, through strong public spending and a more robust increase in foreign sales”.

BRIEFCASE