Instability is gripping a weakened Europe, and global predators are looming nearby

02.01.2022 16:01

The continent is a divided house in which there is no agreement even on everyday issues

Is Europe entering a dangerous new era of instability? Since the height of the Cold War with the Soviet Union, the continent has not seemed so vulnerable to hostile forces, writes Simon Tisdal in a commentary for the Guardian.

The accumulation of external threats and internal divisions combined with a weakening security alliance with the United States, Russia’s ruthless subversion and China’s power-hungry war against Western values ​​reveal fundamental strategic weaknesses.

Europe increasingly looks like a besieged democratic island in an anarchic world where a rising tide of authoritarianism, impunity and international lawlessness threatens to flood it. Some European leaders understand this, in particular French President Emmanuel Macron, but long-term political decisions still elude them. For example, the use of migrants by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to put pressure on the EU is outrageous.

However, this pressure worked, in the sense that German Chancellor Angela Merkel called Lukashenko for talks, ending his isolation after the coup. Its unilateral decision has understandably infuriated the Baltic states, which see it as a concession to a thug and not a lasting solution.

Speaking of thugs, the continued intimidation of Ukraine by Russian President Vladimir Putin risks causing all-encompassing problems. The latest gathering of more than 100,000 Russian troops on the border could be the flicking of weapons, similar to the provocations in Donbass and the Black Sea last spring. If not, Europe will only be able to blame itself. Putin’s insistence stems directly from the de facto European agreement on the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014

Instability on the periphery of Europe extends to the Balkans amid well-founded fears that Bosnia and Herzegovina is returning to conflict 26 years after the Dayton Peace Accords. Reviving ethnic nationalism, embodied by separatist Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, is fueled by Belgrade and Moscow.

A bigger, strategic problem is the EU’s inability to deliver on promises of more close integration with the region.

Europe’s relations with Turkey, a key guard against migrants, are also dysfunctional, thanks in part to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, its president. When he threatened EU members Greece and Cyprus last year, Macron sent naval forces to the eastern Mediterranean. The rest of Europe was sitting idly by.

Erdogan is intervening in both Ukraine and the escalating conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Still, Brussels is paying him to detain refugees from the Middle East, so he hardly dares to create more tensions.

The vicious circle of instability pressing on Europe is more than actual or potential armed conflict. One of the bigger dilemmas is migration. Despite the severe Syrian refugee crisis of 2015, the EU has not yet agreed on a common humanitarian policy on the issue. This guarantees more problems in the future.

One of the main objectors, ironically, is Poland, which rejects quotas for migrants. Faced with border chaos, its hypocritical right-wing leaders, who, like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, are in a fierce battle with Brussels over the rule of law and democracy, are calling for EU solidarity.