Is Erdogan leaving?

Since 2019. Turkish experts, journalists and pollsters followed Turkey’s 2023 general election schedule closely. Probably because the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a crushing defeat in its 2019 local elections in major cities, including Istanbul. . Regular polls since those elections reveal that the AKP’s popularity is “mild”, although it has kept its grip on Turkish institutions and the media. And it seems that Turkish President Erdogan is no longer welcome, especially among young people.

Erdogan may be really vulnerable ahead of the 2023 elections, but not necessarily for the reason most people would think – there are signs that the Turkish president may be too ill to is running for re-election at all, writes FP.

In recent months, a number of recordings have appeared in which Turkish the leader does not look good.

Some of them are less clear, but all together they open up some obvious questions about Erdogan’s health.

In one video, for example, it seems that the president needed the help of his wife and assistant as he descended the stairs.

On the other, he seems to have had difficulty walking near Anitkabir, the mausoleum of Turkish founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

And on another video that gained attention last July, it was as if he had a hard time talking during a holiday greeting to AKP members on television.

Occasionally he looked pretty skinny, FP points out. In tandem with such recordings, there are also rumors about the president’s health, including stories that he is struggling with growing forgetfulness, as well as breathing problems, confusion, vomiting and the implantation of an internal defibrillator. According to these allegations, the president has increased the number of doctors around him, reduced meetings with the press and is taking painkillers before public events, according to the FP.

Of course, such rumors are often repeated by people outside Turkey or those far removed from the president’s inner circle, so rumors of Erdogan’s impending death could only be idle chatter. , indicates FP on its website. After all, the portal points out, other shots seem to be perfectly fine. When he appeared on the CBS show “Face the Nation” on September 26, he may not have looked as energetic as he used to, but he is still 67 years old – neither too old nor young – and he has been in power for more than 18 years, which has taken its toll.

What if Erdogan is really sick?

It is never good to judge someone’s health from a distance, especially if someone is not a doctor. But if such an assessment were to be considered experimentally for a moment, it would open up more questions, the FP points out. What if Erdogan is very ill? What will happen if he cannot enter the 2023 re-election race due to illness or death?

According to Article 106 of the Turkish Constitution, Vice President Fuat Oktay would take over the responsibilities and powers that Erdogan now has, until the elections are held (45 days) and the oath is taken. the new president.

It’s pretty simple and standard. Turkish analysts have long assumed that in post-Erdogan’s Turkey, the AKP will split in ways that will pave the way for competitive elections that could be won by any of Turkey’s major opposition politicians. Maybe it could be Ekrem Imamoglu, who defeated the former AKP prime minister twice, to become mayor of Istanbul. Or his colleague from Ankara, the powerful politician Mansur Javas, and Meral Aksener, the leader of the Good Party with a reputation for toughness.

There are reasonable scenarios according to which Imamoglu, Javas or Aksener would become the next president of Turkey, but the assumption underlying each of their victories is a return to the so-called normal policy after Erdogan.

It is possible, but there is a basis for skepticism.

First, it should be clear by now that Erdogan, through the AKP, has either emptied or persuaded Turkish political institutions to his will. In that context, it is difficult to imagine that the elections organized in 45 days would be fair and free.

Secondly, there is the fact that during Erdgoan’s almost two-decade rule, people from the inner circle of the AKP became richer and more powerful, often through controversial means and practices.

It seems unlikely that officials, businessmen, media personalities and others would be so willing to risk their possessions by surrendering to the uncertainty of a more democratic policy, the FP points out.