Welcome back to our “Beat the Line” series, where we pinpoint three NFL bets early in the week that we think will generate closing line value by kickoff. We went 27-12-8 in creating CLV and 27-19-1 against the spread last season, and we’re back for more after a hectic Week 1.
Here are the three early bets we’re targeting for NFL Week 2.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Thursday, Sept. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET
The Arizona Cardinals dropped 28 points on the Bills in Week 1, but that’s a misleading total. Arizona averaged just 4.5 yards per play on offense and scored eight points off a kickoff return touchdown and a two-point conversion immediately after. Buffalo’s defense played well even without Matt Milano patroling the field.
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The Dolphins weren’t able to move the ball effectively outside of a few explosive pass plays to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As for the Bills, this is going to be a run-heavy offense under Joe Brady. Buffalo attempted 33 rushes and just 23 passes against the Cardinals, and the same plan is going to be in effect to keep Miami’s big-play offense off the field. This is likely going to be a sloppy game as the first quick-turnaround Thursday nighter of the year. The bet to make: Under 50.5 (-110 BetMGM).
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET
The Patriots started off the season with an upset win against the Cincinnati Bengals, but that was more about Cincy being rusty and underprepared than New England being good. Jacoby Brissett went 15-24 for only 121 yards and no touchdowns, and the offense averaged just 4.5 yards per play in the game. Rhamondre Stephenson was the only source of offense for the Pats, but the Seahawks just shut down Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin, allowing them to muster only 50 rushing yards on 18 combined attempts.
On the other side, Seattle’s offensive line looked terrible in Week 1, and the Patriots have the horses up front to take advantage of that weakness. We trust both defenses much more than both offenses heading into Week 2. The bet to make: Under 38.5 (-110 FanDuel).
New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, Sept. 15, 1 p.m. ET
This is a classic case of a skewed Week 1 result affecting a Week 2 line. The Saints put the most dominant performance on Sunday with their 47-10 blowout against the Carolina Panthers, but Bryce Young might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. New Orleans’ defense won’t have as easy of a time against Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb.
That was also a perfect matchup for the Saints offense because the Panthers don’t have a good pass rush. Carolina wasn’t able to take advantage of a weak offensive line and Derek Carr’s struggles under pressure, but Dallas is built to do just that. Micah Parsons and this fierce pass rush can force Carr into game-changing mistakes. This price is already on the move, so grab it before it goes to -7 or higher. The bet to make: Cowboys -6.5 (-115 FanDuel).
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