pointed out that Omicron had a short impact on the economy Expected to recover in the second half of the year to grow by 3.9%

Kiatnakinphat pointed out that the Thai economy is at risk of inflation and the baht fluctuating, affecting the mouth and business

Dr. Phiphat Yellow Naruemitchai Chief Economist, KKP Research, Securities Company Kiatnakin Phatra Public Company Limited revealed Kiatnakin Phatra Securities. Assessing that the Thai economy in 2022 is likely to recover better The economy should begin to return to normal more. But there is still a lot of uncertainty. Concerns over omicron outbreaks in the first quarter likely to have an impact in the short term This delayed economic recovery and the return of tourists. But it is likely to recover when the domestic economic situation and tourism begin to return to normal. and maintains the full-year economic growth forecast at 3.9 percent under the assumption of 5.8 million foreign tourists. Overall, in 2022, there are trends and risk factors that must be monitored. is

The first trend is that the epidemic situation that affects the public health system and economy will gradually change to endemic disease. The proportion of vaccinations is increasing both in Thailand and abroad. reduces the severity of the disease and the impact of the outbreak causing the economy to gradually return to normal more after higher-than-expected global inflation pressures pressure on major central banks especially the US Federal Reserve had to start withdrawing the economic stimulus and adjust the policy interest rate which will affect investment financial cost moving capital and global exchange rates Including Thailand

The third trend is that the Thai economy is likely to recover more slowly than the global economic recovery. It should accelerate in the second half of the year. after the return to normalization of domestic demand and the return of foreign tourists But the recovery is still uncertain. and not yet thoroughly

. Inflation in Thailand is likely to rise to 3.5% in the first quarter. from rising energy costs and rising food prices This will affect the cost of living, especially for low-income earners. on the monetary policy side The Bank of Thailand should still prioritize economic recovery over inflation. and kept the policy interest rate throughout the year. External and domestic interest rate differentials will cause the baht to fluctuate especially in a situation where there is still a current account deficit

. There are three major risks:

one Virus Outbreaks and Mutations May cause the pandemic to continue affect the economic recovery and tourism

two Chinese economic slowdown from problems in the real estate sector and the control of the Covid crisis may affect the recovery of the world economy and Thai economy especially exports that have a chance to slow down and

three If global inflation does not decrease as expected This may force central banks around the world to accelerate interest rates and withdraw the stimulus. more than the market expected This will affect the economic recovery. In addition, we need to keep an eye on geopolitical issues that may increase the price of oil. and pressure on global inflation.