Poll: Virtual Tie In Virginia Governor Race with Less Than One Month Left

There is a virtual tie in the Virginia gubernatorial race between former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and Republican nominee Glenn Youngkin, with less than a month left before the polls close.

The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll revealed with less than one month out from Election Day, McAuliffe has a one-point lead in the poll against Youngkin, 49 percent to 48 percent, respectively. One percent of voters plan to vote for someone else, along with two percent who are still undecided.

However, the percentages are within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.9 percent, meaning the election can go either way.

The percentages were closing in last month. The same poll showed the Democrat with just a four-point lead over the Republican candidate, at 49 percent to 45 percent, respectively. However, the margin of error was +/- 3.4 percent for that poll.

McAuliffe barely leads the women’s vote with 51 percent to Youngkin’s 45 percent. But, Youngkin leads the men’s vote 50 percent to 46 percent.

The Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll was conducted between October 1 and 3, with a sample of 620 likely Virginia voters. “The data sets were weighted by gender, age, education, race, and region based on 2021 turnout modeling,” the poll noted.

This poll adds to a string of positive developments for Youngkin’s campaign. Last month, the Virginia Republican earned a sizeable five-point lead among likely voters in a University of Mary Washington poll.

Additionally, the Cook Political Report changed its race rating from “leans D” to “toss up.” Last weekend, the Hampton Roads Black Caucus — which endorsed McAuliffe in his previous gubernatorial campaign — came out in support of Youngkin.

McAuliffe was caught on camera last night admitting that President Joe Biden’s “unpopularity” in Virginia is causing his gubernatorial campaign to face “headwinds” as the November 2 election draws nearer.

Follow Jacob Bliss on Twitter @jacobmbliss.