Postseason Watch: Bracket, tiebreakers and more

While a lot can happen in the standings between now and when the postseason starts on Oct. 3, here is what the playoff picture looks like heading into Wednesday’s games.

IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY

AL Wild Card Series (starts Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
Mariners (6) at Twins (3)
Rangers (5) at Rays (4)

Orioles (1) and Astros (2) have byes

NL Wild Card Series (Oct. 3)
Best-of-three format (all games at higher seed)
D-backs (6) at Brewers (3)
Cubs (5) at Phillies (4)

Braves (1) and Dodgers (2) have byes

AL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Rays/Rangers at Orioles
Twins/Mariners at Astros

NL Division Series (starts Oct. 7)
Best-of-five format
Phillies/Cubs at Braves
Brewers/D-backs at Dodgers

TIEBREAKERS

Since 2022, all ties in the standings — for a division title or Wild Card spot, or to determine playoff seeding — have been determined solely by a series of mathematical tiebreakers, rather than on the field. A full breakdown of the current methodology can be seen here, but to summarize, the top three elements are, in order: head-to-head record, intradivision record (i.e. within the same division) and then record against opponents in the same league but a different division.

Here is a look at four examples of how tiebreakers could come into play:

• In the AL West race, the Mariners have already clinched a tiebreaker over the Astros by winning eight of the teams’ first 10 matchups, with three to go.
• After winning their first two games against the Blue Jays this week, the Rangers (4-1 vs. Toronto) claimed the tiebreaker advantage if both teams ended up in a tie for an AL Wild Card spot. 
• The Mariners and Blue Jays have the same record (80-65) and same head to head record (3-3) but Seattle holds the tiebreaker advantage for the third AL Wild Card spot right now thanks to a better intradivision record. 
• The Phillies have locked up tiebreakers with the Reds, Cubs and D-backs, which could come into play for either the final NL Wild Card spot or seeding. Philadelphia does not own the tiebreaker over the Marlins after Miami clinched a season series victory with a win at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Who has clinched: The Braves have clinched a postseason berth

Who is next: The Braves (95-50) have a magic number of two for the division and can clinch the NL East title with a win on Wednesday. The Dodgers (88-56) have a magic number of four to clinch the NL West title. The Orioles (91-53) have a magic number of four to clinch a postseason berth.

3 key games from yesterday

AL East: Orioles lead Rays by 3 games

AL West: Astros lead Rangers by 1 game, Mariners by 1 1/2 games

NL Central: Brewers lead Cubs by 4 games

AL Wild Card: Mariners and Blue Jays have the same record for the third berth but Seattle has the tiebreaker advantage

NL Wild Card: D-backs lead Reds by 1 game and Marlins and Giants by 1 1/2 games for third berth

Heading up: The Rays had won four straight games before losing to the Twins on Tuesday. Despite the fact that the Orioles have an AL-best 91 wins and are 37-18 in the second half, the Rays remain within striking distance of winning the AL East. The Orioles and Rays have a huge four-game set beginning in Baltimore on Thursday.

Heading down: The Mariners had lost four straight games and seven of their last nine games prior to beating the Angels on Tuesday. They’re still in a good position to possibly make the playoffs but their cold stretch made the final weeks of the season even more important.

Clinched postseason berth: Braves

Almost there (90% postseason odds or better): Dodgers, Orioles, Rays, Twins, Astros, Brewers, Phillies

In good shape (50-89% postseason odds): Cubs, Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers

In the mix (10-49% postseason odds): D-backs, Giants, Marlins, Reds

Still alive (Postseason odds above 0%): Red Sox, Guardians, Yankees, Padres