Predicting AGI Within 35 Months and the Capabilities of ChatGPT4

Dr Alan D. Thompson is a world expert in artificial intelligence (AI), specializing in the augmentation of human intelligence, and advancing the evolution of ‘integrated AI’. He is predicting Artificial General Intelligence will arrive in about 35 months.

Alan provides AI consulting and advisory to intergovernmental organizations including member states of the United Nations, Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), European Union, and the Commonwealth.

His AGI page is tracking specific capabilities and the next three major milestones to his definition of 100% AGI. This would not be superintelligence but a breakthrough to ultra-rapid advances.

39%: In May 2022, DeepMind Gato is the first generalist agent, that can “play Atari, caption images, chat, stack blocks with a real robot arm, and much more”. Alan has a video about Gato.

41%: In February 2023, Microsoft bound ChatGPT to robotics.

Next milestones
– Around 50%: HHH: Helpful, honest, harmless as articulated by Anthropic, with a focus on groundedness and truthfulness.
– Around 60%: Physical embodiment. The AI is autonomous, and can move and manipulate (as shown by Google Robots in Apr/2022, or more thoroughly in Tesla Optimus designs or similar).
– Around 80%: Passes Steve Wozniak’s test of AGI: can walk into a strange house, navigate available tools, and make a cup of coffee from scratch (video with timecode).

NOTE: He is predicting the success of Teslabot within 35 months.

OpenAI is offering a paid developer chat model chat system for 32000 word answers. It is projected that the next widely available version, ChatGPT-4, will provide answers up to about 22,000 words.

Research papers that have calculated the scaling of large language models forecasts GPT4 should have 20X GPT3 compute and have 10X parameters. GPT 5 should have 10X-20X of GPT4 compute in 2025. GPT5 will have 200-400X compute of GPT3 and 100X parameters of GPT3.

Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.

Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.

A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts.  He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.