For the first time since the beginning of the corona crisis, the state-collected index turns negative. The value is only 49.6 points and was therefore worse than expected.
Qingdao The official, state-recorded purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector in China slipped below the 50 mark in September, which indicates that sentiment has deteriorated. As the National Statistics Office in Beijing announced on Thursday, the value was only 49.6 points and was therefore worse than expected. The mood in China’s manufacturing industry last turned negative at the beginning of the corona crisis in February 2020. At that time, however, the official purchasing managers’ index had dropped significantly more to 35.7 points. Zhao Qinghe from the National Statistics Office named the low performance of energy-intensive industries as one of the reasons for the poor performance. Observers also see the turbulence in the real estate sector as well as increased local outbreaks of Covid cases and the associated draconian measures by the authorities to combat the virus as the cause.
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The first companies reported production stoppages, and the local German economy is also affected. Two main factors are considered to be the reason for the electricity bottlenecks: First, a coal shortage, which was caused, among other things, by the import ban on Australian coal. Second, the attempt by some provinces
to comply with the strict energy efficiency targets of the Chinese leadership at the end of the year by simply turning off the power to the factories. The purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector, compiled by the Chinese business magazine “Caixin”, turned out somewhat better: it rose from 49.2 in August to 50 in September. The survey of the companies always takes place in the second half of the month. Corona and deficiency of ship capacities
However, the value suggests that downward pressure on the economy remains high, said Wang Zhe, an economist with Caixin Insight Group. The spread of the corona virus continued to affect demand, supply and circulation in the manufacturing sector. The situation of the epidemic overseas and the lack of shipping capacity also depressed overall demand, said Wang. How the crisis in the electricity market will develop will also depend on whether the Chinese government intervenes. “Now that the electricity shortage is making headlines in the Chinese and international media, the regulatory authorities will use all means to temporarily restore the supply of thermal energy,” says Yan Qin, an expert on coal at the research company Refinitiv. For example, they could ask the coal mines to increase their production, cap coal prices and raise electricity tariffs for certain customers. All of these measures could lead to a reduction in power outages, at least in the short term, but it also depends on how hard the winter gets. Then there could be widespread failures in China again. “Measures are already being taken to alleviate the problem, but solid measures could be a long time coming before the central business meeting in December,” says a recent analysis by the French bank BNP Paribas. The analysts assume that the electricity shortage will persist until spring 2022. More:
- Power outages and delivery bottlenecks: After Evergrande, China’s economy is threatened with the next Danger
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