For Gaiad, from HSI, the recovery of the second wave was quite different from the first. According to him, in the first one, the closing of the malls took a much longer time, and there was more uncertainty as to how long it would take for the situation to return to normal.
According to Bousquet, from Vinci Partners, after there was a “valley” in the sector – the deepest point of decline before the recovery – the manager’s mall funds have grown at a high monthly average. “In July, for example, we had four out of 15 malls with a performance above 2019. In aggregate, we are still below 2019, but the return after the second wave has been stronger than expected.”
Although the recovery movement is not homogeneous in relation to all assets in the portfolio, Carraz, from XP Asset, pointed out that the malls in the portfolio that have poor performance are being compensated by assets with better performance.
“We have Cidade Jardim, for example, which, as a natural matter, is selling more than ever, with the travel restrictions. The same goes for Catarina Fashion Outlet”, highlighted Carraz. According to the executive, in addition to Catarina being an establishment more focused on promotions, it also helped the fact that the enterprise is an open-air shopping mall, a differential during the pandemic.
“These malls have sales levels above 2019 and are compensating for the malls that are performing worse. Today, we have malls that are performing 30% to 40% above, while others are performing below, they are around 5% to 15% below the level ”, argued the manager of XP Asset.
Inflation impact
When asked about the effects of the loss of purchasing power on shopping mall funds, Bousquet said that the recovery of economic activity should offset the rise in inflation and the end of emergency aid , which is scheduled to end in October.
According to him, the reason is that even if emergency aid is no longer paid, employment indicators have shown to be healthier. “Caged [Cadastro Geral de Empregados e Desempregados] surprised positively and now Pnad [Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios] itself, which had not been reflecting the good performance of Caged, came below 14%, after a long period above this percentage.”
Still according to the manager, analyzes made by the manager indicate that this unemployment rate should continue to fall and that the recovery of economic activity should increasingly be reflected in consumption.
Effects of high interest rates
In addition to commenting on the impacts of rising inflation, managers highlighted that it is inevitable that the rise in interest rates will generate negative effects on the real estate fund industry.
For Carraz, from XP, although the adjustment in the prices of the quotas of mall funds takes longer than in other funds, because malls are less liquid assets, it should happen sooner or later.
In addition to the impacts on quotas, the XP manager pointed out that the rise in interest rates should make the environment and more challenging fundraising. “Investors need to understand that shopping mall funds have assets that are backed up. There’s a brick behind it. Anyone who has an apartment directly does not call the real estate agency to sell the apartment when interest rates start to rise, for example,” he said.
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