Regression Article

The middle of November is around the time when discomfort starts to set in for underperforming players. When a star struggles to get on the scoresheet for four or five games? That’s a cold streak. But once a player crosses the 10-game mark, doubts start to go from a whisper to a more stern confrontation.

Of course, we are still early in the season and players have more than enough time to make up the ground. What’s more, numbers at this point are still impacted heavily by streakiness. Some players are doing the right things but just don’t have the numbers to prove it.

Here are five slumping NHLers who are due to rebound.

Let’s start with the player who has the most at stake. Alexander Ovechkin (824) sits 70 goals behind Wayne Gretzky (894) for the most in NHL history.

Ovi has not done much to cut down his chase this season, lighting the lamp only twice. This is the first time since 2012-13 that he has scored fewer than five goals in the first 11 games of a season.

Always a volume shooter, Ovechkin is attempting 8.45 shots per game this year. In terms of his career, that’s more or less in line with his norm. What isn’t the norm is that he isn’t scoring; Ovechkin has a laughable 4.4 shooting percentage compared to 12.9 percent over the rest of his career.

At 38, he’s undoubtedly lost a step, but this is not a broken-down Ovechkin failing to generate shooting opportunities. Even an average player should have five or six goals given his output so far, and he’s no average player. While missing the 40-goal mark might happen in a full season for the first time since 2016-17, he’s going to start putting them in the net by the bunches soon.

Matthew Tkachuk is not having a nightmare season by any means. Eleven points through 12 games won’t get him dropped down the lineup, and the Panthers have won seven of their last 10 games.

But the Panthers specifically made a blockbuster move for him because of his ability to dominate. He’s coming off two straight 100-point seasons. Now, he’s not even playing at a point-per-game pace.

Don’t expect that to last. Consider this: With Tkachuk on the ice, the Panthers have scored 15 goals yet their expected goals is 24.4. That 9.4 difference between the two is the largest for any forward in the NHL this season.

Of note is that the Panthers’ power play just hasn’t converted this season despite generating chances. Plays like these indicate that Tkachuk is still making power moves to the net. The puck just needs to cross the goal line. Bank on that happening for him more often the rest of the way.

Nazem Kadri was never going to repeat the stellar production in Colorado that won him a Stanley Cup in 2022 and earned him a hefty contract with the Calgary Flames. Playing behind Nathan MacKinnon and with so much talent around him enabled him to have a career year. Indeed, the former seventh overall pick crashed to earth with 56 points last season.

He’s off to an underwhelming start again with just two goals and five assists in 12 games. Like others on this list, Kadri is a victim of bad shooting luck. He has 5.82 expected goals for the season. In a just world he’d be top-10 in the league by goals scored.

The bigger case for giving Kadri a break is that his team has been letting him down. Elias Lindholm and Jonathan Huberdeau have struggled even more than he has to create offense on the first line. Recently recalled Connor Zary has at times looked like the Flames’ best forward. He gives Kadri a new option on the wing.

But get this: Flames goaltenders have .799 save percentage when Kadri is on the ice this season. That’s the second-worst among all NHL forwards who have played at least 50 minutes. It’s extremely hard for players to get in a rhythm when they have to adjust for goaltenders who can’t keep the puck out of the net.

Even if Flames’ goaltending—and the rest of the team for that matter—continues to struggle, they cannot remain this incompetent. As the team around him stabilizes, expect him to pop off.

The New York Islanders, by virtue of having an aging team and limited prospect pool, are in a de facto win-now mode. They’re already slipping behind the pack in the Eastern Conference and will have to pick up ground soon if they want to finish any higher than the wild card.

What will help is Anders Lee shaking off some of his unluckiness. The captain has just one goal and one assist in 12 games.

Perhaps the 33-year-old is losing a step, but it’s not all his fault. Among NHL forwards who have attempted at least 20 shots, Lee ranks sixth by expected shooting percentage (13.73). In actuality, only 2.5 percent of his shot attempts have resulted in a goal.

That trend carries to his general on-ice play. Opposing goaltenders have a .964 save percentage against the Islanders with Lee on the ice. To frame that, Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin flirted with history when he posted a .935 save percentage in 53 games during the 2021-22 season.

Point being, goaltenders will not continue to be this good against Lee. He is still a threatening goal scorer, and particularly on the power play. If you’re a fantasy owner, you would be wise to wait this one out rather than dropping him in a panic.

Trevor Zegras’ stardom is up for debate. Undoubtedly, he is one of the most recognizable and marketable players in the league. His puck skills are virtually unmatched, and he dominates the highlight reel. He has yet to show a consistent all-around game that puts him with the elite on a game-by-game basis.

Nonetheless, he’s far better than what he has shown so far this season. One goal and one assist in 12 games is well below the standard of a 22-year-old who posted 60-plus points in each of the previous two seasons.

The Ducks are shooting a pitiful 2.4 percent at five-on-five with Zegras on the ice, resulting in 0.70 goals per 60 minutes. Only Fabian Zetterlund of the Sharks has a lower on-ice shooting percentage among players who have played at least 150 minutes at five-on-five.

Definitely, Zegras himself needs to kick it up another gear. Even while accounting for variance, he just has not generated offense up to his standards. Still, highlights like this show that Zegras has great hands and is making plays to set up scoring chances. His teammates will soon start rewarding him by putting the puck in the net.

All stats collected via Evolving Hockey unless otherwise noted.