(New: Ökonomenstimmen)
WIESBADEN (dpa-AFX) – The news is bitter for consumers and savers: For the first time in almost 28 years, inflation in Germany has risen above four percent Mark exceeded. Fueled above all by higher energy costs, consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent in September compared to the same month last year, according to initial calculations by the Federal Statistical Office. However, economists do not currently see any cause for concern. In the coming year, according to their assessment, the inflation rate is likely to weaken again.
The Wiesbaden authority had last determined a four to the decimal point in December 1993 at 4.3 percent. Compared to August, consumer prices remained unchanged in September, as the statisticians announced on Thursday.
Higher inflation weakens the purchasing power of consumers because they can then buy less for one euro than before. Rising inflation rates are also bitter for savers who, for example, park money in low-interest overnight money accounts. The bottom line is that your balances lose their value Inflation rate – currently at the historic low of minus 3.82 percent. In the first nine months of the year, savings deposits in Germany lost a total of around 47 billion euros in value due to low-interest deposits.
For months, inflation has been fueled by rising energy prices. In the course of the economic recovery after the Corona crisis, the demand for crude oil has increased significantly, which is driving prices up. In Germany, since January, 25 euros per tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) that is created when diesel, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas are burned have been due. Both are causing energy prices to rise.
In September, consumers had to pay 14.3 percent more for household energy and fuels than a year earlier, according to preliminary data. KfW chief economist Fritzi Köhler-Geib expects that energy prices will remain high until the end of the year, also because the cold past winter swept stocks empty.
“Above all, the energy price shock costs purchasing power and does many Budgets hurt, “said Jörg Zeuner, chief economist at the fund provider Union Investment. “Citizens will still not have to adjust to such high inflation rates for a long time.”
Also because special effects such as the withdrawal of the temporary VAT cut, which is currently having a full impact, will expire at the beginning of 2022. In order to stimulate consumption in the Corona crisis, the federal government had temporarily reduced VAT from July 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020. The regular VAT rates have been in effect again since January 2021, so goods and services are tending to become more expensive again.
Inflation rates of around five percent in Europe’s largest economy are considered possible this year. However, economists continue to regard the rise in inflation as a temporary phenomenon. “Even if there is already a four in front of the decimal point, this development must not be dramatized for the time being,” said ZEW economist Friedrich Heinemann. “The price surge first of all reflects the pleasingly strong and comprehensive recovery of the domestic and global economies after the deep plunge in the pandemic.”
In other euro area countries, inflation is also rising. For example, consumer prices in France, calculated using the European method (HICP), rose by 2.7 percent in September compared with the same month of the previous year. This is the highest rate since 2011.
Inflation is an important yardstick for the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). The central bank is now aiming for an annual rate of inflation of two percent for the currency area of the 19 countries and is at least temporarily ready to accept a moderate increase or decrease of the two percent mark.
Also from a perspective According to the ECB, the increase in consumer prices is temporary and due to special factors as a result of the Corona crisis. A supportive monetary policy course is still needed “in order to safely overcome the pandemic and sustainably reduce inflation to two percent,” said ECB President Christine Lagarde recently. Persistently low prices are seen as a risk to the economy: companies and consumers could then postpone investments – in the hope that it will soon become even cheaper.
The harmonized consumer price index HICP, which the ECB uses for its monetary policy , in Germany in September was 4.1 percent above the level of the same month last year and 0.3 percent above the level of August 2021./mar/DP/jsl
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