Difficulties with the harvest in a number of regions and the threat of an increase in prices for flour and bread stimulate the Ministry of Agriculture to introduce additional mechanisms for regulating the grain market. So, from February 2022, within the framework of the grain export quota, the limit will be calculated separately for the export of wheat. And to balance prices, subsidies for the transportation of grain from the south of the Russian Federation to the center can be introduced. Processors support the measures, as in some regions there is already a tense situation with grain prices due to poor harvests. According to Kommersant’s information, Oksana Lut, deputy head of the Ministry of Agriculture, announced this at a meeting with members of the Union of Grain Exporters on September 30.
As noted at the meeting, an additional measure can prevent another round of growth in prices for flour and bread due to difficulties with the harvest in the center of the country, in the Urals and in the Volga region.
As it was said at the meeting, the Ministry of Agriculture expects the grain harvest this year at the level of 127 million tons, and exports – 34.5-35 million tons, including 31.5 million tons of wheat, of which 14 million tons will fall on the second half of the season, January-June 2022. From the remainder of this volume by February 15 and will form the size of the quota for the export of wheat. This year, from February 15 to June 30, the export of wheat, rye, barley and corn outside the EEU was limited by a total quota of 17.5 million tons. According to operational customs data, from July 1 to September 23, 9.9 million tons of grain were exported from the Russian Federation, including 8.4 million tons of wheat, which is 22% and 19.2% lower than a year earlier, respectively.
Chairman of the Board of the Union of Grain Exporters Eduard Zernin confirmed to Kommersant the fact of the meeting. According to him, the only planned innovation is that within the framework of the general quota, most likely, the volume for the export of wheat will be calculated based on the needs of the domestic market by the beginning of 2022. He stressed that the quota will be introduced for all cereals at the same time and according to the same principle of distribution among the participants (based on the volume of supplies in the first half of the season). The Ministry of Agriculture did not comment on the issue of export regulation. 6 million tons of wheat. According to him, such a revision of estimates may provoke an increase in grain prices. At the end of September, according to Sovekon, Russian wheat averaged $ 304.5 per tonne (FOB). Sovecon forecasts wheat exports at 34.3 million tons, of which 22 million tons will fall in the first half of the season. Director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko says that the new figure of the Ministry of Agriculture for the export of wheat corresponds to the August forecast of the IKAR. regions to the center of the country. unfavorable weather. Yuri Kovalev, general director of the National Union of Pig Breeders, notes that in the regions, the main meat producers, a tense situation has already developed with grain prices due to poor harvests, and demand far exceeds supply. He expects that the new measures will prevent further price increases. According to Prozerno, feed wheat on September 24 in the center cost an average of 15.8 thousand rubles. per ton against 12.7 thousand rubles. per ton a year earlier. The fourth grade wheat needed for flour has not been supplied from the south for over a decade, he said. The IKAR does not predict a strong increase in traffic, but notes that the market power of the agrarian in the south will strengthen, which may further complicate the work of exporters. Andrey Sizov notes that the price in the southern ports will always be higher than in the center of Russia, so it is more promising to subsidize the transportation of wheat from Siberia, where this year also managed to harvest a good harvest.
Alexey Polukhin, Anatoly Kostyrev
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