In the last four months, the number of members of the People’s Power Party increased by 265,000. Unlike traditional party members, new party members are characterized by a high proportion of 20, 30, and 40 generations and the metropolitan area. It is noteworthy which candidates will benefit from the increase in new party membership. ▲ People’s Power Yoon Seok-yeol (left) and Hong Jun-pyo, presidential candidates, listen to the broadcast before the 4th broadcast debate held at MBC in Sangam-dong, Seoul on the 28th.
According to the Power of the People, a total of 265,952 from May 31st to this month people joined the party. This is eight times the number of people who joined in the previous four months (February 1 – May 30). This rapid increase is interpreted as the influence of expectations for political innovation and aspiration for regime change, represented by the ‘Lee Jun-seok craze’. Of the total 265,952 party members, 213,247, or 87%, were the party members. This means that about 231,000 of the new entrants can participate in the People’s Power main contest as responsible party members. Secretary-General Han Ki-ho said in a phone call with a media company on the 27th, “The number of responsible party members has exceeded 450,000. As of the June 11 national convention, the number of responsible party members stood at 285,000, an increase of more than 150,000. Since it is highly likely that they joined with this in mind, interest is focused on which candidate the increase in the number of party members will be more advantageous. This is because the ratio of ‘spontaneity’ increases in the main competition. In the second cut-off on the 8th, 30% of party members and 70% of the poll, and 50% of the party member and 50% of the poll in the final primary will be reflected.
Most public opinion Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol, who received a majority of the support of the People’s Power in the survey, has expectations for the increase in the number of party members. The number of new members of the People’s Power Party stood at 38,000 in June and 44,625 in July. It is estimated that the number of party members increased after Yoon joined the party (July 30) to about 183,000 out of 261,000. It is said that the ‘Yun Seok-yeol effect’ worked. Channel A reported on the 4th of last month that the day with the most party members in a month in July was the 30th when candidate Yoon joined the people’s power, and the number of party members on that day was the only one in July to record 3,000.
Candidate Hong Jun-pyo pays attention to the fact that a large number of 20, 30, and 40 generations have flowed into the party. According to recent opinion polls, candidate Hong is widely supported by men under the age of 40, especially among men in their 20s and 30s. In the last four months, there were 113,979 new members in their 20s, 30s, and 40s, an increase of 7.7 times from the previous four months. This accounted for 42.8% of the number of new party members in the last four months.
Candidate Ha Tae-kyung appeared on Yonhap News TV on the same day and asked a question about the pros and cons of increasing youth party membership, saying, “I was looking forward to the challenge because I was a professional politician in the 2030s, but the reality was cold. “It has to reach a certain critical mass (for me) to get that support,” he said. “It seems that candidate Hong took a lot of that.” is a worthy element. Among the 265,952 new party members, 113,793 members from the metropolitan area were significantly higher than the number of members in charge of the metropolitan area at the last national convention (84,323). TK (Daegu, Gyeongbuk) had 39,576 and PK (Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam) had 35,457, an increase of 75,033 in the Yeongnam region. The number of responsible party members at the June National Convention is relatively small compared to 87,779 in TK and 69,794 in PK.
It is expected that the influence of the Yeongnam vote, which influenced the outcome, will be somewhat reduced, and the candidate who holds the vote in the metropolitan area will be more advantageous. As a result of a poll released by Gallup Korea on the same day (1010 men and women over the age of 18 nationwide, the sampling error is ±3.1%p at the 95% confidence level), Seoul (Hong 29.5%, Yoon 26.7%) In Incheon/Gyeonggi (Hong 30.6%, Yun 27.1%), and PK (Hong 34.7%, Yun 33.7%), Candidate Yoon and Candidate Hong are close within the margin of error. In TK (Hong 27.1%, Yoon 35.9%), candidate Yoon had the upper hand.
UPI News / Reporter Cho Chae-won ccw@upinews.kr
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