House of the Dragon, much like its predecessor, Game of Thrones, will very likely have a high death toll. There are massive dragons flying around, lords that certainly don’t have a lineage by the time of Thrones, and countless old guys just wasting away in powerful positions. The kingdom is sure to crumble any day now, you know. After all, it wouldn’t be much of a Targaryen civil war if everyone stayed alive.
For Fire & Blood readers, House of the Dragon‘s major deaths have already been spelled out, but don’t ruin the fun for everyone else! For all we know, there could be significant changes to the source material in store for us. The text has already been adapted to give characters richer backstories and stronger relationships. Who’s to say that a couple of untimely deaths couldn’t occur as well? Let’s gamble on some outcomes for Season One so far.
Princess Rhaenyra Targaryen: 5% Chance of Death
Princess Rhaenyra is not only our main character, but she’s also the direct ancestor to Daenerys Targaryen roughly 170 years later. Audiences already know that actress Milly Alcock will be replaced by Emma D’Arcy after a time skip in Episode Six, so she’ll survive until then at the very least. Rhaenrya also seems like a character who is primed to make it to the endgame. We certainly hope to see her there.
Queen Alicent Hightower: 10% Chance of Death
As the Queen, Alicent’s children have a claim to the Iron Throne. She, too, will be replaced by an older actress (Olivia Cooke) after a time skip, and will likely serve on the opposing side of Princess Rhaenyra when the succession conflict fully comes into play. However, there’s a slim chance that her character still doesn’t make it out of Season One alive. After all, it’s her children who have the claim, not her. Game of Thrones killed Sean Bean in Season One and I will never trust them again.
Daemon Targaryen: 20% Chance of Death
The reckless and chaotic Prince Daemon is too much of a problematic fan-favorite character to say his farewells in just the first season. But his smug personality doesn’t exactly give him a non-zero chance either. As much as I want to watch him run around Westeros causing havoc and mayhem, he may just take a step too far. Some could argue that he already has by making out with his niece and getting banished from King’s Landing. Outside of the now-dead Crabfeeder, there isn’t anyone else making threats to the king in Westeros besides Daemon.
Ser Criston Cole: 30% Chance of Death
Princess Rhaenyra just picked Ser Criston to be a member of the king’s guard—a position wherein he was forced to take an oath of celibacy. That oath was broken when she seduced him in Episode Four, putting him in a very dangerous spot. The kingdom believes that there may be something between Rhaenyra and Daemon, but it was actually with Ser Criston! Plus, the princess is soon to be wed to Laenor Velaryon. How will Ser Criston fit in now? Any sort of relationship with the princess would put both his life and Rhaenyra’s chance to solidify her claim to the throne in jeopardy.
Corlys Velaryon: 40% Chance of Death
Don’t get me wrong, Corlys seems very cool. Other than that one time he tried to wed his 12-year-old daughter to the king, the idea of a sea captain who owns the world’s largest navy is very awesome. Still, his legendary nine voyages could have all taken place before the events of House of the Dragon. If Corlys could get another spinoff series of his own, his time on this prequel show may be cut short. The fall of House Velaryon must also come at some time during the civil war, especially since not a single Velaryon seems to make it out alive by the time of Game of Thrones.
Rhaenys Targaryen: 50% Chance of Death
Rhaenys is known as the “Queen Who Never Was,” which is the kind of title that doesn’t bode well for the idea of ever achieving the throne. Rhaenys is also Corlys’s wife, so she may meet some horrible end as retribution for her husband siding with Prince Daemon. The fate of Macbeth‘s Lady Macduff may not be that far off as a comparison, but it’s still unclear who will end up on which side of the eventual conflict.
Laenor Velaryon: 60% Chance of Death
Laenor is set to wed Princess Rhaenyra, moving him up in the world from dragonrider to the eventual King Consort. This, of course, also puts the previously safe character in major danger. Laenor will not only have to move from his home in Driftmark to King’s Landing but he will also be wed to a princess at the heart of a civil war for the throne. Will he even live long enough to see the conflict? With Daemon and Ser Criston already vying for her heart, Rhaenyra certainly cannot entertain the affection of three different men for long.
Otto Hightower: 70% Chance of Death
Certain characters like Rhaenyra and Queen Alicent seem pretty damn important to the events of House of the Dragon. However, Alicent’s father, Otto Hightower, was playing the game of thrones a little too on the nose. He was constantly in the King’s ear about protecting the line of succession to his grandson, even pushing his young daughter to marry the king—which was a really gross political move. Where Daemon is the kind of guy who shoots from the hip, Otto is calculated and manipulative. Now that he’s no longer Hand of the King, his time on the show may be coming to an end as well. Was losing his post enough justice for his scheming?
King Viserys: 100% Chance of Death
We’re halfway through the first season now and this guy still has more ailments than I can count. It’s amazing that he’s still alive. The question isn’t so much if he will die, but what or who will kill him? He has some awful wounds festering on his back and arms and pinky finger, he’s suffered a few pricks from the pointy Iron Throne, and he’s getting drunk instead of dealing with any of his problems. He seems to only be alive for the safety of the realm, really. The king’s death would be the perfect catalyst for the question of succession to be thrust into the spotlight.
Josh Rosenberg is an entertainment writer living in Brooklyn, keeping a steady diet of one movie a day; his work can be found at Spin, Insider, Vibe, and on his personal blog at Roseandblog.com.
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