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Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey is an electrifying talent with the ball in his hands, but he isn’t the missing piece for a Super Bowl contender.
With the November 1 trade deadline quickly approaching, the former All-Pro selection is the biggest name that has surfaced in the rumor mill. Adam Schefter of ESPN reported the Panthers are “listening to other teams about a potential trade,” although a deal is not imminent.
They already proved they are more than willing to deal. One day after sending Robbie Anderson to the locker room, they traded the receiver to the Arizona Cardinals.
The din of trade rumors became so loud already that McCaffrey addressed them:
Mike Kaye @mike_e_kaye
I asked #Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey about his thoughts and feelings on the constant trade reports and rumors this week … as well as how the offense was basically him today: pic.twitter.com/lwEtZU3vyt
The Panthers’ Week 6 game against the Los Angeles Rams was a showcase for teams interested in the back. It was also a prime example as to why the Panthers should be looking to deal him.
The all-purpose back had 158 total yards (69 rushing, 89 receiving). The Panthers offense collectively had 203 yards. According to ESPN’s David Newton, he had the second-highest percentage of a team’s offense in any game over the last 20 years.
Despite his Herculean efforts to carry the offense, the Panthers still put up just 10 points in a 24-10 loss to a struggling Los Angeles Rams team.
In other words, McCaffrey is simply not enough to make the Panthers offense viable. He’s a Maserati in a garage full of Ford Festivas.
With that in mind, it makes sense the team is willing to listen to offers for him. After all, they signed McCaffrey to a four-year, $64 million extension in 2020. Although his deal was restructured this year, it is still the biggest contract for a running back based on annual average value.
The Panthers are unlikely to truly turn things around on offense without a serious upgrade at quarterback. That’s only going to happen if they draft a franchise signal-caller or swing a massive trade.
Either way, it’s going to take draft capital, and that’s something the Panthers just don’t have. They only have four picks in the 2024 draft, so trading up the board, if necessary, would be difficult.
What would be even more difficult is trying to rebuild this team while devoting so much cap space to a running back who has struggled to stay on the field.
That’s the problem for many of the contenders who might be interested in trading for him. Oddsmakers have already set the market for who the favorites will be to acquire the running back:
David Furones @DavidFurones_
The Dolphins are given the second-shortest odds to trade with the Panthers for Christian McCaffrey — with the Bills No. 1 — according to SportsBetting(dot)ag. pic.twitter.com/ITqjBWjYjd
Looking at each of the favorites, there are reasons for each to be cautious about adding McCaffrey to their roster.
The Buffalo Bills are a team that should be looking at winning over the next five years. With a prime Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and an emerging Gabe Davis, they already have a core that has shown they can win big games. Their Week 6 win over the Kansas City Chiefs is the latest example.
While adding McCaffrey would obviously make them more explosive, it would also compromise their financial flexibility moving forward. They are already more than $8 million over the cap for 2023, per Spotrac.
That’s when McCaffrey’s cap hit goes from $8.8 million to $19.6 million. As Ian Rapoport of NFL Network noted, the team trading for McCaffrey would essentially inherit a three-year $36 million contract.
With Josh Allen’s deal ballooning every year, finding the cap space for McCaffrey would be a burdensome challenge.
McCaffrey has the highest annual average value of any running back. Here are the others who comprise the top five: Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry.
All four are supremely talented running backs. However, their teams are a combined 2-5 over the last two years in the postseason. A great running back can help you get to the playoffs but isn’t necessarily moving the needle of playoff success.
Even for those who can afford to pick up the tab for McCaffrey, he’s a dangerous long-term investment.
Six healthy games to start the 2022 season has seemingly made some forget that CMC was unable to stay on the field over the last two seasons. It wasn’t as though McCaffrey suffered one major injury that he has finally recovered from.
McCaffrey missed time in the 2020 and 2021 campaigns with ankle, shoulder and knee injuries. Draft Sharks puts the likelihood that he suffers an injury for the season at 84 percent, or 10.2 percent per game.
Now consider the running backs who could be available in free agency next season:
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter
As teams ponder a trade for Christian McCaffrey in the coming weeks, they also know this has the potential to be the richest and deepest free-agent RB class that the NFL has seen: pic.twitter.com/GRaMS0V35y
Teams like the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams—who also have short odds to get the running back—are both cautionary tales about spending resources on the running back position.
Both have backs who have enjoyed varying degrees of success in their respective systems. Darrell Henderson averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season, and Raheem Mostert has put up big games in Mike McDaniel’s system when he played with the 49ers.
The problem with their respective run games isn’t the running backs. It’s the offensive lines that have failed to create open lanes. Henderson (2.9), McCaffrey (2.8) and Mostert (2.7) are all 28th or lower in yards before contact.
McCaffrey would be a clear upgrade for both teams. His talent as a receiver would add a dimension for each of those offenses, but he wouldn’t be able to save the run game just like he hasn’t saved the Panthers’ run game.
Fantasy managers who have been stuck watching McCaffrey on a putrid Panthers offense should celebrate the idea of him being traded, but he’s much more likely to win those championships than be the difference-maker on a title team in 2022.
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