Economists at Scotiabank analyze USD outlook.
Markets consider rate outlook
The June NFP data was likely strong enough to cement a rate hike from the Fed later this month. But the trend in the US labour market is clearly slowing and investors are, at the margin, slightly less persuaded by the idea of rate hikes beyond this month’s decision. December swaps eased 7-8 bps Friday.
The weak close for the USD Friday rounded off a rough couple of days and cemented a bearish (outside range) close on the DXY on the week which tilts risks toward a generally softer USD (or limited upside potential at least) in the near to medium term.
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