Bolsonaro and Lula today have practically the same electorate as in January 2018

In January 2018, in a Datafolha poll, Lula had 37% of voting intentions, Bolsonaro 16%, Alckmin 7% and Ciro 7%. The other candidates who were in the simulation all had 15% together. Lula didn’t win in the first round, but he led comfortably.

It was a scenario very similar to the current one , which is even a little more favorable to Lula. In the first survey of the year carried out in person (same method used by Datafolha) by Quaest, Lula leads with 45%, Bolsonaro had 23%, Sergio Moro 9%, Ciro Gomes 5%, João Doria 3% and Simone Tebet 1%.

What do the numbers show? That in January 2018, shortly before being arrested and already being the victim of a media-judicial massacre, Lula was very favored to win that election. If it weren’t for Sergio Moro and the TRF-4 who rushed to remove him from the election and arrest him in April, he would probably be president today.

Even with high rejection of the PT in the middle class, Lula would have had the vote of the D and E classes, which Haddad did not achieve because he was less known and because he did not have the same popular profile as the former president.

If this is true, it is another that Bolsonaro it already had 16% and not 2% or 3% as some irresponsible analysts keep promoting to say that it is possible to build a viable candidacy from scratch 9 months before the election. Not quite.

A presidential candidacy is not built so quickly. Brazil is a continental country with very different regions. In municipal or state elections it is even possible to make someone with low indexes manage to surprise in the final stretch, as Felipe Nunes, CEO of Quaest, highlighted, in an interview with the Forum Half past eleven. But for president the hole is deeper. And Bolsonaro had already managed to reach in January 18 that magic number of 15% that can propel a name to a higher flight.

This is the bad news for the 3rd way. None of their candidates have even 10%, that is, they haven’t hit the double digits. This will have to happen very quickly or the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro tends to make those who could vote for another candidate head towards one or the other. Which may make Lula decide the bill in the 1st round, because he is far ahead.

In fact, this is the current trend that recent polls show. Bolsonaro and Lula polarizing the debate this year and Lula winning in the 1st round, making the current president fulfill his promise and go live elsewhere. Probably in Dubai, where he has done a lot of business and a place where it is very easy to wash away the dirty money that accumulates in other countries.

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