Boris Johnson and the Kingdom Crisis

Thanks to a solid majority in Parliament and high popularity ratings among the grassroots, the British Prime Minister could actually look forward to being celebrated at the Tory Party Congress. But there are signs that things could soon become uncomfortable for Boris Johnson.

Just before the Boris Johnson’s party conference Conservatives in the UK are in crisis. The motorists have to grapple with massive difficulties at the gas stations. Many petrol pumps are not in use, and where there is still fuel, people often have to queue up in traffic jams that stretch for miles. The reason is a massive shortage of truck drivers. This has already caused some shelves in supermarkets to be empty and could drive up prices for many products.

Prime Minister Johnson had disappeared for days and was silent, then played down the crisis. “We’re starting to see the first signs of improvement,” he said in a short clip and promised that the supply situation would be under control for Christmas.

Hardly any gas reserves

But as if the shortages were not enough, UK consumers have to cope with a sharp rise in energy costs, which hits the country particularly hard because of its low gas supply. And if the inflation rate rises, interest rates could soon rise, which could get many homeowners into trouble.

In addition, the “Furlough Scheme”, the British version of short-time work benefits, expired at the end of September. The program had kept thousands of people in jobs that may no longer exist. All of this comes after Johnson’s unpopular decision to raise social security contributions, despite campaign promises to the contrary, in order to finance an urgently needed reform of long-term care. There is already talk of a looming “Cost of Living Crisis” and a “Winter of Discontent” (winter of discontent). It is feared that numerous people could slip into poverty.

Nevertheless, the political scientist Anand Menon of King’s College in London believes that the Tories Johnson will be “like a hero” at the four-day party conference in Manchester, which begins this Sunday. will celebrate. “The Tory members love him and the Tory MPs also love him because he wins (elections),” said Anand in an interview with the German press agency. The fact that Johnson was very late in commenting on the fuel crisis met with isolated criticism, but Menon sees this as Johnson’s tendency to hide away when things get tough. Then others should take care of it.

Johnson reshapes cabinet

Johnson had already got rid of some of these human shields before the party conference: In a cabinet reshuffle, he banished the former Foreign Minister Dominic Raab to the Ministry of Justice and threw Education Minister Gavin Williamson out. Neither of them cut a good figure. Williamson was criticized in the pandemic for chaos in school leaving exams and the organization of teaching in the pandemic. Raab was reluctant to return from vacation when the militant Islamist Taliban took over the Afghan capital Kabul and British and other Western troops hastily left the country.

There will certainly be “a lot of pretty tough debates” about economic decisions at the party conference, Menon said. But he still does not believe that the prime minister has suffered any damage as a result. But he warns: “If things go really badly economically, and especially if there is a high inflation and unemployment rate, the government will be in trouble.” In the long term, however, a negative economic forecast could even move Johnson to an early election, the scientist believes: “I think spring 2023 is a possibility.”

Florian Foos, who researches Political Behavior at the London School of Economics, also sees risks for Johnson in a weak economy. But he believes that a further intensification of the pandemic could influence the mood in the country to the detriment of the conservatives. As is so often the case, Johnson put everything on one card with his radical opening strategy. Thanks to the successful vaccination campaign, many British people have since forgiven him for the mistakes he made at the beginning, “but if things go wrong again, things could soon look different”, says Foos.

By Christoph Meyer, dpa