Confusion over Russian attacks headache for West

NATO and EU threaten sanctions against Russia even in the case of a minor attack on Ukraine. But what then should be counted as a minor attack? there is no answer to that. This is something you have to discuss and it will be a huge problem, says Björn Ottosson at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI).

The issue was brought up with US President Joe Biden’s press conference earlier this week. Biden promised harsh sanctions in the event of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also said that in the event of a “minor attack”, which did not mean that Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine, NATO members did not agree on how the military alliance would react.

After strong criticism from Ukraine, Biden clarified shortly afterwards that if Russian soldiers cross the border, it should be seen as an invasion, while for example a hacker attack would be a minor attack. His press secretary Jen Psaki has also said that non-military attacks, such as cyberattacks and paramilitary attacks, will be met with “a determined, reciprocal and common response”.

Becomes a definition question But the statement creates problems – because the discussion before any sanctions can now land in what should be considered an invasion or a minor attack, says Björn Ottosson, US researcher at the Swedish Defense Research Agency (FOI).

– The introduction of this distinction in the discussion on sanctions makes the situation much, much more difficult for Europe. Now suddenly a lot of actors in Europe who do not want sharp sanctions can claim that something Russia is doing is a minor attack and that they should not hit so hard or introduce costly sanctions, he says.

For example, in the event of a clear movement of Russian units across the border into Ukraine, sanctions will be imposed, Ottosson estimates.

– If something clearly happens, such as Russia does something inside Ukraine and commits violence on Ukraine’s sovereignty – clearly – then a discussion takes place.

It is more difficult with things where it is difficult to directly identify the actor, such as the recent cyberattack on Ukrainian government sites that Russia is accused of being behind, according to Ottosson.

Is just below the border ” And Russia is good at balancing on the border for what the outside world can accept , according to Gudrun Persson, research leader at FOI with a focus on Russian security policy.

– Russia, if we look back at Georgia and Crimea, has been very skilled at being just below the border of what the outside world perceives as invasion, she says.

During the military annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014, the EU was very divided and did not reach an agreement – until the Dutch flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine, says Persson.

– It was the summer of 2014 and the shooting down of MH17 that led the EU to agree on sanctions that are still in place – not the annexation of Crimea.

Small effect of sanctions Whether sanctions even have any effect on the actions of the Russian president depends, of course, on their scope. But in general, sanctions have quite a small effect on states’ actions around what is considered to be in the country’s national interests, says Björn Ottosson.

– So far, they have had very little effect. And they do not agree on how far they want to go in the sanction issue. There are obvious weaknesses among European countries – they are not united. And Putin is well aware of that disagreement.

– It is, of course, part of the Russian calculation and the Russian strategy.