In the next four years, the insurance market may grow by 40%, up to 2.5 trillion rubles, analysts believe. This will be facilitated by the active development of the life insurance segment, including credit. Market participants and experts note that government incentives are needed to implement such forecasts, while a number of expected regulatory changes, on the contrary, risk holding back the development of the industry.
The volume of collected insurance premiums in 2025 may to reach 2.5 trillion rubles, exceeding the figure for 2021 by almost 40%, follows from the draft strategy for the development of the industry until 2025, developed by the National Rating Agency (NRA) by order of the All-Russian Union of Insurers (VSS), which Kommersant got acquainted with. The ARIA and the NRA confirmed the development of the document, but declined to comment. The strategy is developed, as a rule, for a four-year period. It reflects important initiatives for the industry, including those for dialogue with the regulator.
According to the strategy, the share of insurance other than life insurance will decrease from 70% to 66% by 2025, while the share life insurance will increase from 29% to 33%. This will be facilitated by the inclusion of long-term life insurance contracts in the investment tax deduction, which will lead to an increase in the attractiveness of the product for potential insurers. , introduce compulsory liability insurance for taxi drivers, similar to insurance for transportation by other modes of transport.
Products will also be developed to provide protection against the risks associated with the introduction of new technologies. Including taking into account the increased responsibility for the disclosure of personal data.
Among the factors hindering the development of the market, the developers of the strategy name excessive regulation, which can lead to an increase in labor costs and will hinder the development of new products. There is also a possibility of a worsening of the epidemiological situation in 2020, fraught with an increase in the volume of insurance payments, including in the life and health insurance segment.
Experts agree that the market can achieve the declared indicators. According to Yulia Temkina, head of the practice for working with insurance companies at KPMG, by 2024 the total market volume will amount to 2.32 trillion rubles. Growth in the life insurance segment will be outstripping – by an average of 16.7% per year (up to 746 billion rubles). In the segment of insurance other than life insurance, the annual growth will be 9.5% (up to 1.58 trillion rubles). As Ms. Temkina explains, in life insurance, a large share falls on the segment of credit life insurance, which has been on the rise recently, and in other insurance, OSAGO has a significant part, where the growth potential is limited.
Together with At the same time, Aleksey Bredikhin, Director of the ACRA Financial Institutions Ratings Group, notes that there remains a risk of significant changes in the regulation of life insurance and credit insurance – in particular, the Central Bank may introduce restrictions to protect the interests of policyholders.
Managing Director for Insurance and investment ratings of the Expert RA agency, Aleksey Yanin adds that the total volume of insurance premiums will grow due to inflationary growth in the cost of insurance services, however, the structure of the non-life insurance market will not change significantly, it “is not subject to sharp fluctuations in the medium term.”
Evgeny Sharapov, director of ratings of insurance companies of the NKR agency, expects a drop in fees from the sale of policies accident protection over a three-year horizon, as these are products with low customer utility and high commissions. Among the risks, Mr. Sharapov notes the significant impact on the market of the situation with the development of the pandemic, in particular, hard lockdowns limit insurance coverage for VHI, reduce the frequency of auto insurance and OSAGO.
Market participants believe that in order to implement plans for its development requires the support of the state. According to the deputy head of Ingosstrakh, Ilya Solomatin, the stimulation of home insurance and housing insurance by the state, including tax benefits, can help expand insurance. By 2025, the share of compulsory medical insurance may decrease due to the state’s policy “to replace insurance medical organizations with funds,” he believes.
The Ministry of Finance did not respond to Kommersant’s request. The Bank of Russia noted that the strategy for the development of the financial market until 2030, developed jointly with the Ministry of Finance, indicates the need to create additional incentives for the development of life insurance, create conditions for the development of new insurance products and improve regulation.
Yulia Poslavskaya
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