NFL betting: This prop is cashing in 93% of Detroit Lions games

Telling a fan of an NFL team to bet with their head and not with their heart is good advice, but you may as well be telling a Juggalo to stop drinking liters of Faygo. The heart wants what it wants and the head will follow accordingly. Detroit Lions fans embody that to the fullest degree. The Lions consistently draw heavy betting action that kicks off the moment their season win totals and division winner odds are released. Nearly 45% of BetMGM bettors who placed wagers on which team would win the NFC North this year put their money on Detroit to restore the roar.

While they failed to win their division, Dan Campbell’s team has been rewarding spread bettors throughout the season. Only two teams have a better record against the spread than the Lions, who have covered in 10 of their 15 games. That’s a nice profit for anyone who’s backing Detroit on a weekly basis, but it’s not even close to the best bet you could be making in Lions games. For that, we’ll have to look to one of my favorite game props offered at BetMGM.

“How many yards will the shortest touchdown in the game be?”

The beauty of this game prop is that it’s a static line — “over 1.5 yards” is always set at -110 and “under 1.5 yards” is always juiced at -125, regardless of which teams are playing each other or what the expected point total is.

When I wrote about this early last NFL season, I uncovered the key formula to finding a team that cashes the under on this prop at a profitable rate (greater than 55.6%). What we’re looking for is a team with a prolific offense and a strong running game, paired with a defense that’s generous, but whose secondary isn’t routinely getting torched for long touchdowns.

Last year, that team was the Tennessee Titanswho ended up seeing a 1-yard touchdown scored in 13 of their 17 regular season games. From 2019 to 2021, “under 1.5 yards” cashed in an astounding 39 of 49 Titans contests.

The mantle has now been passed on to the Detroit Lions.

Biting kneecaps and scoring 1-yard touchdowns

A touchdown of less than two yards has been scored in 14 of 15 Detroit games this season, the lone exception being their 29-0 loss to the Patriots in Week 5. Each of their last 10 games has cashed the under on this prop, making it 93.3% for the year. A $100 bettor wagering on “under 1.5 yards” in every Lions game this season would currently be up $1,275.

The best part is that 1-yard touchdowns are likely to keep happening when Detroit takes the field. They’re scoring the fifth-most touchdowns per game (3.1), while surrendering the most (3.3). The Lions rank sixth in offensive DVOA and 28th in defensive DVOA, which isn’t much of a surprise for an organization that ranks first in offensive salary ($123.3 million) and 20th in defensive salary ($89.7 million).

Stats provided by teamrankings.com and SharpFootball.