- The first trading day of new Spot Bitcoin ETFs broke records with around USD $4.6 billion in inflows, largely driven by a shift from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to these ETFs.
- Trader Michaël van de Poppe attributed the recent Bitcoin rally to a ‘buy the rumour, sell the news’ phenomenon.
- British HODL suggests that Bitcoin’s stagnant price, influenced by several factors, doesn’t imply ‘priced in’ status, with a potential surge to USD $50k-$57k expected by week’s end due to anticipated buying pressure.
The first day of trading the shiny new Spot Bitcoin ETFs is done and dusted – and it was a record breaker. Early reports by Bloomberg analysts show that around USD $4.6 billion (AUD $6.86 billion) poured into the 11 ETFs.
Here’s the #Bitcoin ETF Cointucky Derby data via trading volume on day 1 (more volume will continue for a little while).
Total Volume was over $4.6 Billion with $GBTC about half of it. BlackRock & Fidelity went 1 & 2 absent GBTC. pic.twitter.com/t70MzyQfZW
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 11, 2024
However, when drilling down into these numbers, Bloomberg’s James Seyffart says that much of this volume is caused by investors selling out of GBTC and into other ETFs. Spot Bitcoin ETFs directly invest in physical Bitcoin, offering a structure closer to the actual Bitcoin market. This is seen as more appealing to investors seeking direct exposure to Bitcoin’s price movements. In contrast, GBTC is a trust that holds Bitcoin, and its shares are traded on the stock market. This difference in structure is probably what caused the spike in volume.
Seyffart believes we will see more meaningful data over the coming days, nevertheless these early volumes are still remarkable. For comparison Seyffart’s colleague Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg, posted a list of the 25 most successful ETF launches of all time. BlackRock evidently dominates the top ten, with sources saying that they have around USD 2$ billion (AUD $2.98 billion) lined up to flow into the BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF in the first week.
Here’s the 25 most successful ETF launches of all time and you can see BlackRock dominates top 10. This is lined up cash (not organic) hence why I say “on brand” this is what they do. Further, I got a second source to confirm Matt’s claim that they have big day one $ lined up pic.twitter.com/bTta4I0GtH
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 5, 2024
So, What’s in Store for Bitcoin Post ETFs?
Trader Michaël van de Poppe said on X that the Bitcoin rally we have seen thus far was due to ‘buy the rumour, sell the news.’ He believes that Bitcoin now stabilises and money will flow into Ethereum (which we are already seeing). Then he predicts a correction in March, just ahead of the Bitcoin halving.
The #Bitcoin ETF is approved and live.
The rally prior due to ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’.
Now, reality kicks in and #Bitcoin stabilizes, consolidates and opens the gates for #Ethereum to run to $3,000-3,500 and altcoins to run heavily.
After that: correction in March.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 11, 2024
Popular X commentator British HODL holds slightly different views, telling his followers that the lack of movement in Bitcoin’s price could be attributed to the wiping out of leverage, the saturation of pre-ETF investor interest, and the anticipation of ETFs accepting capital to acquire Bitcoin in the future.
According to British HODL, this suggests that current pricing doesn’t necessarily reflect ‘priced in’ status, which will be clearer at the halving. The potential influx of USD $4bn (AUD $5.96bn) on the first trading day could, according to the Bank of America Bull Market Multiple, lead to a Bitcoin price between USD $50k-$57k (AUD $75k-$85k) by the end of the week, indicating that significant buying pressure is yet to commence.
For anyone wondering, #Bitcoin price has not moved because:
1. Leverage was wiped out yesterday.
2. Everyone who wanted in before ETF, seems to be in.
3. Only after 9.30am tomorrow can the ETF’s actually start accepting capital and thus start acquiring #Bitcoin.
Just because…
— British HODL ❤️🔥🐂❤️🔥 (@BritishHodl) January 11, 2024
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