Young NFL Players Dangerously Close to Bust Status Entering 2022

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Patience is not a virtue widely embraced in the NFL, especially for first-round picks. 

While draft picks should be evaluated by what they do over the course of their rookie contracts (which are four years with a fifth-year option), many high-profile prospects are labeled a “bust” much sooner. 

Sometimes, it’s warranted. For instance, Dwayne Haskins, Isaiah Wilson and Jeff Gladney can safely be given the label. None of them are even still rostered by the team that drafted them. 

There are others from the last three draft classes who are dangerously close to joining those names. Their careers are off to a rocky start, but they do have time to turn things around. 

These first-rounders have to start producing quickly if they want to avoid the dreaded bust label.

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The 2019 LSU team has provided plenty of star power in the NFL. Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Joe Burrow have all made their marks. One of the highest draft picks from that squad has been a massive disappointment so far, though. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars used the 20th pick in the 2020 draft on K’Lavon Chaisson after he posted 6.5 sacks in his final season at LSU. He didn’t have elite production for the Tigers, but he impressed scouts with his athleticism on tape and his long build. 

Through two seasons, none of those factors have led to results on the field. Chaisson has remained relatively healthy, appearing in 31 games over the last two seasons, but has just two sacks to show for it. 

With Josh Allen producing on the outside, it isn’t as though Chaisson sees extra attention from offensive lines. 

Like many on this list, Chaisson’s best hope of rebounding from his slow start is to find his way with a new coaching staff. He’s set to play for his third defensive coordinator in three years, with Mike Caldwell coming from Tampa Bay to fill the role under Doug Pederson. 

Perhaps working with a coach who has experience with the likes of Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul will get him headed in the right direction. 

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Admittedly, there’s a good argument to be made that Clelin Ferrell has already crossed the threshold into bust status. After all, he was downgraded to 30 percent or less of the defensive snaps in 2021 with Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue serving as the primary pass-rushers in Sin City. 

When the then-Oakland Raiders drafted him with the fourth overall pick in 2019, the expectation was that he would certainly have more than eight career sacks by now. 

There is reason to believe he can turn it around and at least become a valuable member of the team. For one, Ferrell hasn’t been as bad as his raw pass-rushing production would make it seem. 

His 2020 season was underrated in terms of his overall production. He was Pro Football Focus’ 12th-highest-graded edge-defender through Week 13 and second on the team in overall pressures last season. 

Secondly, the presence of a new coaching staff and front office in Las Vegas could get him back on the right track. Working with defensive coordinator Patrick Graham will mark the last opportunity under his rookie contract to prove he can be a valuable asset. 

He’s going to have to start putting up numbers in limited opportunity if he is going to shed the bust label that is just about solidified.

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The 2020 draft was a strong one for offensive tackles. Tristan Wirfs immediately became a valuable member of a Super Bowl winner. Jedrick Wills Jr. was the starting left tackle on one of the best offensive lines in the NFL in his first year. Mekhi Becton had a strong rookie campaign along with Andrew Thomas. 

Austin Jackson was perceived to be a cut below those guys as prospects, but he hasn’t even lived up to that billing. The Miami Dolphins used the No. 18 overall pick on the USC product, but he’s struggled from the jump. 

He lined up at tackle as a rookie and was a bit of a disaster. He surrendered four sacks and drew five penalties while playing 848 snaps and earning a PFF grade of 52.3. In 2021, he kicked inside to guard, hoping for better results. 

He actually scored worse with a 49.9 grade across 1,096 snaps while drawing 12 flags and surrendering two sacks, per PFF. 

Tackle prospects are generally safe because even if they don’t pan out, they usually wind up being serviceable guards. That hasn’t been the case for Jackson thus far. The Dolphins were the lowest-graded offensive line, per PFF’s Sam Monson, and Jackson was the worst of the bunch. 

He’ll have to impress Mike McDaniel’s coaching staff and show he can be an asset in camp if he even wants a chance to prove he isn’t a bust.

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The New York Giants raised some eyebrows when they took Daniel Jones with the sixth pick in the 2019 draft. The Duke product had tools coming out of college, but his production was questionable. 

Fast-forward three seasons, and he’s only thrown four more touchdowns than sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew with more than double the interceptions. That’s not a great sign that Jones is ever going to become a franchise passer. 

Jones showed some promise in his rookie season. He threw 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and eclipsed 3,000 yards in 13 games. 

Unfortunately, there hasn’t been improvement since. 

It’s hard to put all the blame on Jones, though. In three years, he’s been coached by Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge with Mike Shula, Jason Garrett and Freddie Kitchens as his offensive coordinators. He’s also absorbed over 100 sacks. 

That punishment leads to another question with Jones which is health. He has missed at least two games every year and six in 2021 due to injuries. 

With Brian Daboll coming over from the Bills, it’s gut-check time for Jones. Daboll had great success working with Josh Allen, and four years is plenty of time to evaluate a quarterback’s potential. He has to get off to a hot start with his new coach to avoid being called a bust.

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There may have been some unfair expectations placed on Javon Kinlaw when the San Francisco 49ers drafted him with the 14th pick in the 2020 draft. 

The 49ers acquired the pick from the Indianapolis Colts when they traded DeForest Buckner. Ideally, Kinlaw would have developed into the replacement for Buckner and his pass-rushing production. 

Things haven’t gone according to plan, though. Kinlaw only registered 1.5 sacks in his rookie campaign. In his second season, he played four games before knee surgery sidelined him for the rest of the year. In those four games, he only managed one quarterback hit and eight tackles. 

Kinlaw hasn’t even had much success as a run-stuffing interior defender, either. His PFF grade has been in the 50s both seasons. 

The idea that Kinlaw could replace some of Buckner’s production on a cheaper rookie deal was good in theory. However, he must stay healthy in 2022 and start getting to the quarterback if he wants to prove the Niners didn’t make a mistake taking him in the first round.

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The fact that there are two players from the Las Vegas Raiders on this list perfectly sums up why Mike Mayock is no longer employed as a general manager. 

The former NFL Network analyst might have outdone himself with the selection of Alex Leatherwood in the first round of the 2021 draft. If his rookie season was any indication, he is going to have a hard time finding a role in the league. 

Leatherwood was originally drafted to play tackle, and he got his shot on the outside. By early October, he had been moved to guard. That didn’t really help. He posted an abysmal 29.0 pass-blocking grade, per PFF’s Sam Monson, and surrendered eight sacks with 14 penalties.

It’s not fair to write off a player after one season. The transition to the league can be difficult, and it isn’t always the same progression for linemen.

But Leatherwood hasn’t even established a baseline of competence. That’s a scary position to be in as Josh McDaniels and his staff take over the offense.

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Sometimes, the most important ability is availability. If you look back at some of the all-time NFL draft busts, injuries and an inability to stay healthy are a common theme. 

After playing in 10 games through his first two seasons with the Detroit Lions, Jeff Okudah is flirting with bust status simply because he hasn’t been on the field. 

The No. 3 pick in the 2020 draft played in nine games as a rookie. He missed time with injuries to his hamstring, shoulder and groin.

When he was on the field, he didn’t look great. He surrendered a 118.0 passer rating and a 77.4 completion percentage when targeted.

Those are bad numbers, but they would have been quickly chalked up to working out the kinks if he had shown improvement in his second season. Instead, he gave up three catches for 109 yards on four targets in his only game of the season before rupturing his Achilles and missing the remainder of the campaign. 

Achilles injuries are not easy to recover from. If Okudah can get back on the field for all 17 games next season, it should be considered a win. If he can be in the lineup and flash some of the potential that made him a top-three pick, he’ll have an opportunity to officially shed the bust label by his fourth season.

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Isaiah Simmons has been all right for the Arizona Cardinals. But all right isn’t acceptable when you take a linebacker in the top 10.

When Arizona took the versatile linebacker out of Clemson, it was hoping for the kind of impact we saw from Micah Parsons in his rookie season. He doesn’t have the same pass-rushing prowess but his ability to play in the box, slot or even safety for the Tigers led to the belief he could impact the game in multiple facets. 

Simmons has been playable. He ranked 56th among all linebackers that PFF graded this past season. He even had over 100 tackles in 2021, but the splash plays he developed a reputation for in college still have yet to show up in the league.

Through two seasons, he has just 3.5 sacks and two interceptions. However, there were definite signs of improvement in Year 2. He forced four fumbles (only one in 2020), had seven pass deflections (two in 2020) and lowered his passer rating allowed by 11 points. 

Part of the problem for Simmons has been finding a steady role. He did become a full-time starter in 2021 but only played 32 percent of the snaps in the wild-card loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has already noted he’s hoping Simmons can carve out a bigger role in the offseason. 

He’s far from the All-Pro defender draftniks and the Cardinals envisioned after a stellar collegiate career. Those signs of hope are going to have to turn into consistent production in 2022.