S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index—Home Prices Up 3.9% in September

What does the data show?

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index notched 3.9% higher annually in September, slowing compared with previous months. The 10- and 20-city index saw annual increases of 5.2% and 4.6%, respectively, down from 6% and 5.2% the previous month. This month’s release covers home sales in July, August, and September, a period in which the market continued to tilt in buyers’ favor.

Mortgage rates reached a recent low of 6.08% at the end of September, closing out a roughly five-month period of easing mortgage rates. Eager buyers took advantage of this temporary respite, which resulted in a 3.4% bump in existing-home sales in October. However, mortgage rates started to climb once again, reaching as high as 6.84% last week, which will likely hurt buyer demand and home sales through the end of the year. 

How did trends vary by region?

Regional variation in the housing market means that buyers across the country face significantly different homebuying conditions. Markets in the Midwest and Northeast continue to see substantial demand, while the South and West continue to soften as inventory builds. Similar to last month, New York City (+7.5%), Cleveland (+7.1%), and Chicago (+6.9%) saw the highest price growth, while Denver (+0.2%) saw the slowest.

What is ahead for housing?

Though the housing market is still relatively challenging, the rental market is a favorable alternative as rents continue to ease in much of the country. Rental supply is expected to grow as multifamily units are completed, which could take even more pressure off of rents.

On the for-sale side, home price growth will likely continue to slow as long as buyer demand remains lackluster. Though falling mortgage rates mean more affordable homeownership, an uptick in demand could send prices climbing once again if inventory fails to keep pace. A steady increase in both housing supply and demand will be necessary to maintain market balance.